Asean fits bill for equity investment 

TUESDAY, MAY 28, 2019
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THE MSCI ASEAN index is now flat year-to-date after rising 6 per cent as of the start of May, according to an HSBC report yesterday. 

Meanwhile, yesterday MSCI expands the investment in Asia market that boost the Stock Exchnage of Thailnd yesterday closed up 7.20 points at 1,632.04 with a record transaction value of Bt204.85 billion.Trading was led by foreign investors net buying Bt12.53 billion. 
Globally, with equity markets nearing HSBC’s index targets, HSBC prefers a more defensive stance.
 In our view, Asean fits the bill. While we expect more volatility and more market stress in the near term, here’s why we think Asean equities can hold their own despite the long shadow cast by trade tensions.
External factors – exports
In Asean, some factors are likely to offset the dispute over tariffs between the US and China over the long term – think shifts in supply chains and new trade agreements – and the region has slowly regained its competitiveness in recent years. 
There’s also policy ammunition at home to navigate the trade slowdown.
HSBC expects lower US yields and a stronger US dollar. 
Historically, Asean equities have not been overly affected by the dollar’s strength when US yields have fallen. During such periods, valuations have often been much richer and inflation much higher than they are now. 
In times of stress, history tells us that Asean is a better place to hide than other emerging markets. Asean outperforms emerging markets in times of US dollar appreciation, rising volatility and EM corrections. Asean will also be supported by a higher dividend yield than in other parts of the region.

Domestic factors
Elections and policies in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have caused some market wobbles. 
But we believe the election results point to policy continuity, which should support reforms, infrastructure spending and consumption.
irst-quarter results show earnings are performing quite well in difficult circumstances. Earnings expectations have held up reasonably well so far. 
Consensus expects Asean’s 2019 earnings growth at 6.3 per cent. Though this is below the expectation of 7.6 per cent at the start of the year, we think strong domestic demand aided by pro-growth policies can compensate further for problems elsewhere.
Focus on domestic growth, easing monetary policies, infrastructure spending and dividend plays. We remain overweight on the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. Upgrade Malaysia to neutral and downgrade Singapore to underweight (from neutral) within the Asean context. On a sector basis, we like consumer, real estate, communication services and selected industrials.