Sunday, November 17, 2019

Joint committee lowers growth forecast for 2019

Oct 02. 2019
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By THE NATION

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The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has revised downward its forecast of Thailand's economic growth this year to between 2.7 per cent and 3.0 per cent from the previous projection of between 2.9 per cent and 3.3 per cent.

It has also revised down its prediction of this year’s exports to between minus 2 per cent to 0 per cent from the previously forecast between minus 1 per cent and growth of one per cent.

The revised export outlook reflects uncertainties in the economies of major countries, the prolonged US-China trade war and the stronger baht.

The committee added that the economic indicators in July and August suggested possible softened economic growth in the third quarter, due to the slowing global economy, US-China trade war and the stronger baht. 

The committee has also estimated that flooding will cost the economy between Bt20 billion and Bt25 billion.

It has estimated that the government’s economic stimulus “Eat, Shop, Spend” campaign, which has proved popular with Thais, will inject Bt20 billion and Bt30 billion into the economy.

The committee said it hoped to see additional new monetary and fiscal measures from the government to boost the economy.

Earlier this week the Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) revised downward its economic growth forecast for 2019 from 3.1 per cent to 2.8 per cent, while predicting that the economy may grow at less than 3.0 per cent next year amid numerous negative factors.

Its assistant managing director Nattaporn Triratanasirikul said the downgrade in GDP growth was in line with the global economic slowdown. The slowdown has caused the country’s exports during the first eight months of 2019 to see a worse-than-expected contraction, as witnessed in various product categories and in most major markets.

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