Baht buckles under pressure of stronger dollar, weakening gold
The baht opened at 35.75 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from Friday’s close of 35.56.
The Thai currency is expected to move between 35.65 and 35.85 against the greenback during the day and between 35.50 and 36 during the week, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said the baht will likely fluctuate and weaken against a strengthening dollar.
He also warned that foreign investors might sell Thai stocks once they near the resistance level. The baht may also be pressured by the gold price if it falls closer to its support level.
Poon also said the baht could fluctuate during the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting which may push foreign investors to adjust their possession of bonds and baht.
Poon forecast that the dollar’s uptrend has ended but could fluctuate and strengthen in the short term if the US inflation data, including medium-term inflation, estimation is higher than expected which will cause the market to worry that the US Federal Reserve might increase the interest rate.
Moreover, the market in a risk-off state could help the dollar strengthen if investors are disappointed with listed companies’ performances or if they are concerned that Europe’s economic outlook is recessing.
Poon also advised investors to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in a highly volatile currency market.
He added that investors this week are waiting for the US inflation data from the consumer price index and medium-term inflation estimation which will cause the Fed to change the currency policy’s direction. He also suggested that Thai investors should monitor the MPC’s meeting.
