TAIA targets 1.5m vehicle output in 2026; exports seen flat at 950,000

The Thai Automotive Industry Association (TAIA) has set a vehicle production target of 1.5 million units for 2026, a slight increase from 2025, while projecting exports to remain flat at 950,000 units as the industry navigates global trade volatility and intensifying competition.

TAIA said it hopes the next government will build on existing policies to preserve Thailand’s production base and strengthen domestic purchasing power.

Domestic sales forecast at 550,000 units

TAIA president Suvachai Suphakanjandachakul said the industry expects total production in 2026 to reach 1.5 million vehicles, compared with 1.455 million in 2025.

Of the 2026 total, TAIA forecasts 550,000 units for domestic sales and 950,000 units for export, unchanged from last year.

Export outlook “still worrying”, TAIA warns

Suvachai said export-oriented production remains a concern due to swings in global trade and growing competition in overseas markets.

He pointed to China’s rising vehicle exports to Australia, a major market for Thailand, and flagged an EV export backlog carried over from late last year under the EV 3.0 measures.

He said the policy allows export production to be counted as 1.5 vehicles for every one vehicle actually produced, while extending the export deadline to the middle of this year.

Industry urges policy continuity after the election

Looking ahead after the election, Suvachai said the sector hopes for a stable government that will maintain continuity in planned measures, including a scrappage-style scheme to trade in old cars for new ones.

He said continued policy support is needed to strengthen the automotive industry and stimulate demand in line with the large supply already in the market.

FTI: 2025 output beats target, but export production down

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported that vehicle production from January to December 2025 totalled 1,455,569 units, down 0.91% year-on-year, but above the target of 1,450,000.

Production for export stood at 956,230 units, accounting for 65.69% of total output, and fell 5.24% from 2024.

Domestic sales jump, but pick-ups remain weak

Domestic vehicle sales in December 2025 totalled 75,121 units, up 39% year-on-year, marking the first month in 33 months in which sales reached that level.

However, pick-up truck sales remained low at 14,965 units, which TAIA linked to tighter auto lending amid high household debt and sluggish domestic growth. FDI levels also remained low, the industry noted.