UTCC sees 2026 border trade topping 1.09tr baht

On 28 January, Assoc Prof Thanavath Phonvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) and chair of the Advisory Board of UTCC’s Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, disclosed the findings of Thailand’s Foreign Border Trade Sentiment Index (FBI), the second such survey following last year’s edition.

He said border and cross-border (transit) trade accounts for around 10% of Thailand’s overall exports and helps support the Thai economy. However, Thailand has faced border-related issues since mid-year, which have affected border and transit trade.

For 2026, the survey found Thailand’s Foreign Border Trade Sentiment Index (FBI) stood at 38.7 in the short term, 43.1 in the medium term and 47.5 in the long term.

“In the long term, confidence has improved, but in the short term it remains at a level that is still affected by problems and factors that impact border trade,” he said.

Key positives and negatives

Positive factors for Thai border and transit trade this year include:

• rising demand for Thai products;
• government plans to support border-area operators;
• trade cooperation policies between Thailand and neighbouring countries;
• more convenient financial transactions;
• improved logistics infrastructure;
• customs checkpoints becoming more technology-driven;
• signs of economic recovery in neighbouring countries;
• and upgrading border crossings to permanent checkpoints.

Negative factors include:

• unrest and security concerns along border areas;
• higher transport costs;
• stricter checkpoint regulations;
• competition from low-priced goods in neighbouring markets;
• natural disasters;
• corruption;
• smuggling and illegal trade;
• transport obstacles from damaged infrastructure;
• currency volatility in neighbouring countries;
• disease outbreaks;
• and delays caused by customs procedures.

The survey also examined the impact of unrest and border security concerns: 71.5% said the impact was high, while 9.5% said the impact was low. Regarding natural disasters and climate volatility, 40.9% said the impact was high, while 2.5% said there was no impact at all.

On the use of benefits under free trade agreements (FTAs), 64.5% said they were using such benefits more, while 7.2% said they used FTA benefits less.

What businesses worry about — and what they want from the state

Survey respondents said their main concerns were heightened tensions along Thailand’s borders, which could affect trade and transport stability; international economic and political uncertainty, which could influence the trade and investment climate as well as international relationships and policy; and issues of public-sector systems and governance, particularly corruption.

They said they want the government to help by reducing trade barriers and strengthening international cooperation; improving government regulations and processes; developing border payment systems; reducing customs steps and procedures; and ensuring good governance and stability in border areas.

2026 outlook

UTCC forecasts border and transit trade in 2026 at 1.09 trillion baht, up 2.56%. Imports are projected at 900 billion baht, up 4.57%.

Jiraphan Asawathanakul, vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the Border Trade Committee of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the impact on border and transit trade still needs close monitoring. He said he believes the situation should return closer to normal in the long term, though short-term impacts will remain. Overall, he expects transit trade to expand more than border trade.

On trade value, he said there is potential to reach 2 trillion baht, as both border and transit partners still have confidence in Thai goods.

As for how border issues might affect Thai operators investing in neighbouring countries, he said it remains something to watch. Many investors have set up production there to use export-related incentives, and any decision to stay or relocate production would require careful study and could not be done immediately.

He added that Thailand may need to consider how to attract supply chains and encourage Thai private investors to invest domestically from upstream to downstream, including what kinds of incentives and support could be put in place.