ThaiBMA warns 2026 slow growth may raise bond default risks
ThaiBMA warns 2026 GDP may be just 1.5%, raising risks of corporate bond defaults and repayment delays after 2025 spikes in both
Thailand’s Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) has warned that a slow-growth outlook and global uncertainty could raise the risk of corporate bond defaults and repayment delays in 2026, after both indicators surged in 2025.
Somjin Sornpaisal, managing director of ThaiBMA, said uncertainty remains high for both the global and Thai economies in 2026, driven by factors including trade wars and geopolitical conflict. With limited fiscal and monetary space to support domestic conditions, ThaiBMA expects Thailand’s GDP growth could be around 1.5% in 2026.
ThaiBMA warned that a weaker economy increases the likelihood of issuers defaulting on bond payments (default) or seeking to extend principal repayment beyond the original schedule (bond delay), with risks expected to be higher than last year. Somjin Sripaisal said a new government will need to use limited resources carefully, prioritise measures that support long-term growth, and address problems in a targeted way.
Bond issuance and maturities in 2026
Ariya Tiranaprakit, deputy managing director of ThaiBMA, said corporate bond issuance in 2026 is projected at 880–900 billion baht, broadly in line with 2025’s issuance of 881.083 billion baht, supported by a low interest-rate environment, continued investment plans from large firms, and the likelihood that commercial banks will issue new bonds to refinance maturing debt.
ThaiBMA estimates corporate bonds maturing in 2026 at 875.985 billion baht, with around 90% in investment-grade (AAA–BBB) names and about 10% in high-yield (below BBB-).
Maturities by quarter are expected at:
- Q1 2026: 185.312 billion baht
- Q2 2026: 265.994 billion baht
- Q3 2026: 243.784 billion baht
- Q4 2026: 180.895 billion baht
Sectors with the largest maturities are:
- Finance: 167.904 billion baht
- Energy: 145.935 billion baht
- Property: 144.326 billion baht
Ariya said new issuance is expected to at least match maturing volumes, given the heavy weight of investment-grade bonds.
Rates and yields outlook
ThaiBMA said the policy rate could be cut once in 2026, based on market surveys that expect the Monetary Policy Committee to reduce the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points in Q2 2026, to 1.00% from 1.25%.
ThaiBMA expects Thai government bond yields in the five-year and 10-year tenors to edge 5–10 bps lower on average from the end of 2025, influenced by the government’s funding plans, Thailand’s growth outlook, policy rate direction and foreign investment flows.
2025: defaults and delays surged
ThaiBMA said Thailand’s growth in 2025 was lower than expected, weighed down by external uncertainty, trade wars and geopolitical tensions, as well as domestic pressures such as high household debt and weak private investment. Corporate bond issuance in 2025 totalled 881.083 billion baht, down 3.51% from 913.141 billion baht in 2024.
From January to December 2025, eight bond issuers — mostly mid-sized and smaller high-yield names — defaulted on bonds totalling 8.319 billion baht:
- CV: three debentures, 883.7 million baht
- WTX: one debenture, 408 million baht
- CHO: four debentures, 745 million baht
- GRAND: two debentures, 502 million baht
- PRIME: three debentures, 2.049 billion baht
- SQ: four debentures, 1.097 billion baht
- TTCL: five debentures, 2.545 billion baht
- AQUA: one debenture delayed, 90.2 million baht
The value of defaults in 2025 rose by 5.147 billion baht, or 162.26%, from 3.172 billion baht in 2024. However, the 2025 default total was still below the 16.363 billion baht recorded in 2023.
Over the same period, bond delays totalled 59.804 billion baht across 21 issuers, with 14 issuers delaying repayment for the first time. Examples listed included:
- EA: 12 debentures, 21.666 billion baht
- PF: 18 debentures, 7.679 billion baht
- MJD: seven debentures, 5.949 billion baht
- GRAND: 11 debentures, 4.2384 billion baht
- CHAYO: five debentures, 3.933 billion baht
- PRIME: six debentures, 3.129 billion baht
- EP: two debentures, 2.169 billion baht
- RICHY: six debentures, 1.534 billion baht
- NRF: one debenture, 1.3 billion baht
- TPCH: one debenture, 1.0 billion baht
(Other issuers listed included CGD, JCK, TPOLY, ECF, B, JTS, CMC, WTX, NAKON, SQ and AQUA.)
ThaiBMA said the value of bond delays in 2025 rose by 21.841 billion baht, or 57.53%, from 37.963 billion baht in 2024 — and far above 12.443 billion baht in 2023.
