Thai bond market faces Q4 2025 test as high-yield redemptions and rollovers rise

Thailand’s bond market has entered the fourth quarter of 2025 with 218.777 billion baht of corporate bonds coming due – up from 195.263 billion baht in the third quarter. For the full year 2025, total maturing bonds amount to 867.982 billion baht.

Of particular concern is the high-yield segment – bonds rated below BBB- or unrated – with 24.381 billion baht maturing in the final quarter, or more than 11% of total Q4 redemptions. These issues face a higher risk of maturity extensions or outright default, as Thailand’s economy has yet to clearly recover, many companies are short of liquidity and new fundraising remains difficult.

The Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) reports that from January to November 2025, bond payment defaults totalled 7.349 billion baht from eight issuers. Some problematic issues were later restructured with bondholder approval. Over the same period, bonds with postponed payment dates amounted to 56.018 billion baht from 22 issuers, 15 of whom were seeking an extension for the first time.

Defaults and extensions rising in Q4

In the fourth quarter (October-November), defaults and extensions continued to increase from the previous quarter.

• Defaults in October-November:
  Totalled 2.8372 billion baht from three existing issuers.
  • October: three existing issuers, three series – GRAND (1 series, 202m baht), TTCL (1 series, 390m baht), AQUA (1 series, 90.2m baht).
  • November: one existing issuer, four series – TTCL (4 series, 2.155bn baht).
• Payment extensions in October-November:
  Totalled 13.339bn baht from four existing issuers and three new ones.
  • October: four existing issuers, 20 series –
    • CHAYO (5 series, 3.933bn baht)
    • MJD (7 series, 5.949bn baht)
    • NAKON (2 series, 387m baht)
    • SQ (5 series, 1.213bn baht)
  • November: three new issuers, four series –
    • TPCH (1 series, 1bn baht)
    • AQUA (2 series, 647m baht)
    • PSTC (1 series, 210m baht)

ThaiBMA said most defaults or extensions stem from the difficulty of doing business amid Thailand’s economic slowdown. The association hopes that bond-market problems will gradually ease in 2026 in line with an improving economic outlook.

It still expects total bond issuance in 2025 to reach 880-900 billion baht, in line with earlier targets, but cautioned that investors must be highly selective and assess credit risk on a company-by-company basis.

ThaiBMA assesses that troubled bonds in Q4 are still concentrated in high-yield issuers that have previously sought to extend maturities. New issuers that stretch out bond payments are unlikely to be able to tap the market again in the near term.

However, a number of issuers – particularly in the high-yield, higher-risk segment – have called bondholder meetings this quarter to seek further tenor extensions, citing an economy that has yet to recover and tight cash flow that makes repayment on the original schedule difficult.

“Some companies do not actually want to extend bond payments, but the Thai economy is still sluggish and their financial buffer is short, so problems arise,” ThaiBMA said.

“While waiting for the economy to recover, extending maturities can still be a good solution for firms that are genuinely trying to keep their businesses going and fix their problems. In such cases, defaults need not occur, and both principal and overall debt burdens can come down. Gradually repaying principal to bondholders in a fair and appropriate way is ultimately in everyone’s best interests,” the association added.