IMF keeps Thailand’s GDP forecast at 2%, warns on global debt and AI bubble risks
The IMF maintains Thailand’s GDP growth at 2% for 2025, while highlighting risks from global debt and a potential AI market bubble. The World Economic Outlook urges fiscal discipline and warns of slower US growth and rising inflation pressures.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained Thailand’s GDP growth forecast at 2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, according to its October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), consistent with the July update and the latest World Bank forecast.
Released during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting 2025 in Washington D.C., the report warns that the global economic landscape remains “volatile and directionless,” driven largely by the United States’ policy priorities and adjustments by other countries to align with new global rules.
Key uncertainties stem from new US trade measures, which have raised tariffs to levels unseen in the past century. Despite a reduction from their April peak, tariffs remain between 10-20% for most trading partners, still far above 2024 levels.
The IMF notes that the resilient economic activity in early 2025 was largely a temporary effect caused by businesses stockpiling and exporting goods to avoid higher tariffs. Signs now indicate that these protective measures are beginning to slow US growth to around 2.0% in 2025.
Inflation remains a concern. While current tax impacts on prices are muted, core inflation in the US is rising noticeably, with forecasts indicating further increases in the second half of 2025 as higher costs pass through to consumers.
Fiscal policy in many advanced economies continues to be lax, pushing public debt-to-GDP ratios higher. In the US, debt is projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030. Medium-term risks include pressures from technological decoupling, cross-border labour restrictions, and declining foreign workforce inflows, which could result in inefficient resource allocation and constrained long-term growth.
Financial risks also include overvaluation of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence. If productivity expectations are not met, equity markets could see sharp corrections, reminiscent of the dot-com crash of 2000-01.
The IMF calls on policymakers to act urgently to ensure confidence, certainty, and sustainability. This includes addressing trade uncertainties with clear, transparent, and enforceable plans, maintaining fiscal discipline to reduce debt burdens, and safeguarding the independence and credibility of central banks to preserve price stability amid global growth slowdowns and potentially entrenched inflation pressures.
