Thai Economy Poised for Q4 Boost Despite Slowdown, Says Central Bank
Bank of Thailand anticipates 2.2% GDP growth, driven by returning tourists and export rebound; warns on Chinese visitor numbers and US trade tariffs
- Thailand's central bank forecasts an economic recovery in Q4, with potential annual GDP growth of 2.2%, following a slowdown in Q3.
- The anticipated Q4 boost is expected to be driven by the high tourism season, a rebound in exports, and government stimulus measures.
- Key risks to the positive outlook include a slower-than-expected return of Chinese tourists and the potential impact of US import tariffs on Thai goods.
Bank of Thailand anticipates 2.2% GDP growth, driven by returning tourists and export rebound; warns on Chinese visitor numbers and US trade tariffs.
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has confirmed that the national economy experienced a slowdown in the third quarter of 2025 but expects a meaningful recovery in the final three months of the year, potentially pushing GDP growth up to 2.2%.
Speaking at a press briefing on Friday, Chayawadee Chai-anant, BOT Assistant Governor and spokesperson, and Pranee Sutthasri, senior director of the Macroeconomic Department, indicated that a late-quarter boost came from a rebounding industrial sector and the return of short-haul tourists.
Q4 Outlook: High Hopes for High Season
The central bank is signaling a gradual recovery in the fourth quarter, fuelled by the high tourism season, end-of-year festive spending, and ongoing government stimulus measures.
The tourism sector is expected to perform strongly, bolstered by government schemes such as Tiew Thai Kon La Krueng (Thailand Travel Co-payment) and a noticeable return of long-haul international visitors, a trend evidenced by increased seat capacity and advance bookings.
Exports, another key economic pillar, are also set to maintain momentum, particularly in electronics and seasonally strong goods like processed foods and air conditioners.
This expansion is supported by improving global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and increased orders from major markets, including the US and EU.
Furthermore, domestic industrial activity is normalising after temporary maintenance closures in Q3, allowing related service sectors like logistics and trade to expand.
Q3 Slump and Key Risks
The BOT noted that the third quarter saw overall economic activity decelerate compared to the preceding quarter.
Domestic demand weakened due to softening private consumption and investment, whilst foreign tourist receipts dipped—a trend that began to reverse only in September as manufacturing resumed and short-haul visitors from Malaysia and India increased.
Despite the positive forecast for Q4, the central bank highlighted several risks that require close monitoring:
Chinese Tourist Recovery: A weaker-than-anticipated rebound in the number of Chinese visitors could significantly impact high-season revenue.
US Tariffs: The imposition of US import tariffs could erode the competitiveness of Thai exports, particularly those reliant on the American market.
Domestic Stimulus: The long-term effectiveness of domestic stimulus measures in bolstering consumption and investment needs to be proven.
The current account recorded a surplus in Q3, largely driven by the trade balance, whilst inflation remained low, falling into negative territory due to energy and fresh food prices.
