Thai FPO Raises 2025 GDP Forecast to 2.4% on Export Surge and Stimulus Boost

 

Bangkok eyes strong recovery driven by trade and year-end government spending before exports cause a slowdown in 2026.

 

The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 to 2.4%, up from an earlier projection of 2.2%.

 

The improved outlook is primarily attributed to a massive boost from year-end government stimulus policies and a remarkably strong expansion in merchandise exports, which are now expected to grow by a robust 10.0%.

 

Vinit Visessuvanapoom, director of the FPO and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, announced the revised projection on 30 October 2025, stating that the new forecast falls within a range of 1.9% to 2.9%.

 

The main catalyst for the upward revision is domestic consumption, which is set to benefit from government measures in the fourth quarter of 2025.

 

These include schemes such as Khao Khon La Khrueng Plus and Teaw Dee Mee Khuen, alongside the acceleration of budget disbursements. As a result, private consumption is forecast to expand by a healthy 3.0%.

 

The export sector remains a powerful engine, with the value of goods in US dollars projected to surge by 10.0%.

 

 

This spike is due to businesses fast-tracking shipments, particularly in the third quarter of 2025 where exports to the United States and China soared by 26.4% and 10.8%, respectively.

 

In terms of stability, the FPO anticipates headline inflation will be -0.2% in 2025—a deflationary environment resulting from state-led energy cost reduction policies.

 

The country's current account balance is expected to post a significant surplus of $20.0 billion, equivalent to 3.5% of GDP.

 

Looking ahead to 2026, the FPO predicts Thai economic growth will ease to 2.0%. The chief cause of this deceleration is the export sector, which is projected to contract by -1.5%.

 

This slump is a direct consequence of the massive acceleration of exports in 2025, which was done to preempt potential trade tax measures from the US.

 

 

However, the economy in 2026 will be cushioned by strong tailwinds:

 

The tourism sector is expected to recover further, attracting 35.5 million foreign visitors, thanks to events like the 2026 Royal Flora Ratchaphruek and the IMF/World Bank meetings.

 

Private consumption is forecast to remain solid, growing at 2.4%.

 

Government investment is set to expand by 3.0% due to continued focus on rapid disbursement.

 

The Ministry of Finance confirms it will pursue a "Quick Big Win" fiscal policy strategy, focusing on stimulus, debt reduction, SME promotion, saving, and future investment.

 

 

The FPO stressed that it is closely monitoring several external and domestic risks, including:

• US tax policies.
• The trajectory of the US Federal Reserve's interest rates.
• Geopolitical conflicts.
• Persistent domestic issues like high household debt and SME Non-Performing Loans (NPLs).