UNCTAD ranks Thailand No.1 in export diversity in the Global South, ITD says

The International Institute for Trade and Development (Public Organisation), or ITD, has highlighted findings from UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2025, saying Thailand stands out as one of the most resilient economies in the Global South thanks to its exceptionally diverse export base and wide range of trading partners—an advantage it says can help cushion the impact of tariff shocks and global financial volatility.

ITD Director Suphakit Charoenkul said developing economies in Southeast Asia, including Thailand, are facing growing uncertainty from global trade policy shifts and intensifying geopolitical tensions—especially the increased use of tariffs as a form of trade restriction. Even so, he said ASEAN continues to demonstrate strength and an important role in global supply chains.

The report, ITD said, projects that global growth in 2025 and 2026 will slow to 2.6%, but developing economies—including ASEAN—still show positive momentum, with growth forecast at 4.3% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, acting as a key engine supporting the global economy.

Thailand tops export product diversity in the Global South

ITD said UNCTAD’s report places Thailand in a particularly advantageous strategic position within the Global South, ranking it No.1 on the Trade Product Diversity Index. It said Thailand’s score of 1.02 reflects the country’s ability to spread exports across agriculture, manufacturing and higher value-added processed products—the highest among developing economies.

This breadth, ITD said, acts as an important “trade shield” as countries brace for fresh tariff waves, including from the United States. While Thailand is expected to face additional tariffs of around 10%—described as the lowest among newly targeted partners—ITD said diversified products and diversified markets give Thailand flexibility to pivot quickly to alternative destinations when volatility hits, strengthening trade risk management and the ability to adapt to global policy shifts.

Warning signs in agriculture and food markets

ITD said the report also flags risks from “financialisation”, where finance increasingly dominates the real economy—especially in agriculture and food markets, where Thailand is a major player. It said more than 75% of revenue at some large global food trading firms comes from acting as financial intermediaries rather than selling physical goods, increasing price volatility and directly impacting upstream farmers.

The report also points to “frontloading” in the first half of 2025, as exporters rushed shipments to get ahead of tariff changes—an effect that is expected to fade and could reinforce a broader slowdown in global trade.

Services and the green economy: the next growth engines

ITD said UNCTAD’s report underscores that trade in services is expanding faster than traditional goods trade, and that Thailand and ASEAN should accelerate digital infrastructure upgrades to capture opportunities in digitally deliverable services, which could become a new engine of wealth creation.

It also urged ASEAN to take a more proactive approach by deepening regional cooperation and building value chains in future industries such as electric vehicles and the green economy.

Looking ahead, ITD noted that Thailand will host the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in 2026, describing it as a key platform for Thailand and ASEAN to set out a vision and demonstrate readiness to play a leading role in driving the Global South’s green economy and digital services agenda.

Suphakit said ITD will use insights from the report to support Thai businesses—especially SMEs—by strengthening access to market intelligence and helping them adapt to economic volatility, while building trade capacity through training, research and academic work aimed at improving competitiveness across the region.

UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report (TDR) is the organisation’s flagship annual publication, providing in-depth analysis of trends in the global economy, international trade and development finance. The 2025 edition, titled “On the Brink: Trade, Finance and the Reshaping of the Global Economy,” focuses on pivotal shifts reshaping the structure of the world economy.