Strong baht threatens to slow 2026 exports as orders soften, shippers warn
Thai shippers forecast 2026 export growth of 2-4% as a strong baht near 31 to the dollar, a high base and softer orders weigh, led by weaker rice and rubber.
Thailand’s exports in 2026 risk growing more slowly as the strong baht, a high base and softer orders weigh on performance, the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) has warned.
Thanakorn Kasetsuwan, chairman of the TNSC, said Thailand’s export base in 2025 was unusually high — with growth seen at more than 10% — which could make it difficult for exports in 2026 to expand at a similarly strong pace. The council’s current forecast for 2026 export growth is 2-4%.
He said Thai exports next year will face challenges on multiple fronts, including the high base effect, a stronger baht, slowing purchase orders, and uncertainty over tariffs and global trade conditions.
The baht’s strength is a key risk, he said. The currency has been trading at around 31 baht to the US dollar and is expected to strengthen further. This reduces the export value when converted into baht, even if export volumes measured in dollars still rise to some extent.
Thanakorn said exports measured in US dollars may still be able to grow within the 2–4% range, but that would be low compared with many previous years and below what the private sector wants to support broader economic growth.
On new orders, he said foreign demand has not disappeared, but purchase orders for 2026 are clearly lower than in 2025. One major reason is that overseas buyers have already stockpiled large volumes of goods this year, when Thai exports expanded strongly.
The most worrying products, he said, are basic, unprocessed agricultural commodities, particularly rice and natural rubber, where contraction signals are already emerging. Volatile global agricultural prices, weaker demand and tougher competition from rival producers are expected to continue pressuring Thai agricultural exports next year.
“Basic farm products such as rice and rubber are already showing negative figures. Next year is likely to look similar to what we are seeing now,” he said.
However, he said there is still growth potential in products linked to global supply chains — raw materials and components that trading partners need for further production — such as automotive parts, electronics, and processed agricultural products.
He added that Thai exporters’ shift towards higher value-added goods and deeper integration into global production chains will be crucial in supporting export performance in the period ahead.
