Finance Ministry cuts Thailand’s 2025 GDP forecast to 2.2% after weak Q3; sees 2026 growth at 2%
Thailand’s Finance Ministry has revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 2.2% from 2.4% after Q3 growth came in at 1.2%, while projecting 2026 GDP growth of 2.0%, led by tourism and steady private demand.
The Finance Ministry has revised down its outlook for Thailand’s economy in 2025 to 2.2% growth from the previous forecast of 2.4%, after the third quarter underperformed.
Vinit Visessuvanapoom, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) and the ministry’s spokesperson, said Q3 2025 growth came in at 1.2%, weaker than expected, pulling down the full-year average. The slowdown was attributed to weaker manufacturing output due to refinery maintenance shutdowns.
However, the ministry expects growth to improve in Q4 2025 to 1.8%, supported by government stimulus measures, including Khon La Khrueng Plus, the state welfare card, Tiew Dee Mee Kuen, and accelerated budget disbursement.
“We expect private consumption to expand by 3.3%, while exports have grown better than expected. The value of merchandise exports in US dollars, measured under the Balance of Payments (BOP) framework, is forecast to rise by 12.7%, driven by accelerated shipments to the US market and growth in new high-potential markets such as India and China,” Vinit said.
2026 growth seen at 2.0%
For 2026, the Finance Ministry forecasts GDP growth of 2.0% (a range of 1.5%-2.5%). Exports are expected to cool from the previous year but remain resilient, with merchandise export value in US dollars forecast to edge up by 1%, reflecting slower global trade volumes and a high base in 2025. Imports in US dollars are forecast to rise by 3.9%.
Tourism is expected to be the main engine, with foreign tourist arrivals projected at 35.5 million, supporting a strong recovery in services income. Private consumption is forecast to continue expanding by 2.5%, while private investment is expected to grow by 3.2%, driven by real investment following investment promotion approvals. Government consumption is forecast to grow by 1.3%.
Government investment, however, is forecast to contract by -1.7%, affected by political transition, which could delay the enactment of the FY2027 annual budget bill by around three months. The ministry said the government should expedite the process and may consider measures to speed up disbursements to mitigate the impact.
On domestic stability, headline inflation is forecast at 0.3%, in line with improving domestic demand. On external stability, the current account is expected to post a surplus of US$12.0 billion, or 2.0% of GDP.
Three key risks to watch
The Finance Ministry said it will prioritise maintaining sustainable fiscal stability by improving revenue collection efficiency, bringing more of the informal economy into the formal system to broaden the tax base, and maximising value-for-money in public spending to preserve fiscal space for future shocks.
It added that key factors to monitor closely include:
- Volatility in global trade, especially uncertainty from trade barriers and global geopolitics, which could weigh on exports.
- Financial fragility, with high household debt and SME debt that could constrain the recovery in consumption and investment.
- Policy stability and continuity during political transition, to sustain investor confidence.
