China to cut GDP growth target for 2026 to 4.5-5% due to economic slowdown
China's government plans to reduce its GDP growth target for 2026 to 4.5-5% in line with ongoing economic challenges, focusing on "quality growth" as part of the 15th Five-Year Plan.
According to a report by the South China Morning Post, China’s government is preparing to lower its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5-5%, down from the previous target of around 5% in 2025, due to ongoing signs of economic slowdown within the country.
Three unnamed sources revealed that the new target is expected to be finalised during the economic planning meeting in Beijing in December 2025, with the official announcement set for the National People's Congress in March 2026.
If confirmed, this adjustment will be a significant indication that China is shifting towards a focus on economic stability and quality growth, rather than simply prioritising growth figures. This strategy is central to the first year of implementing the 15th Five-Year Economic and Social Development Plan.
Despite a 5% GDP growth in 2025, driven largely by record exports, internal consumption remained weak, and investment fell sharply. Experts believe that relying solely on exports will be increasingly difficult, especially as many countries around the world ramp up trade barriers.
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, exports contributed nearly a third of GDP growth in 2025, the highest proportion since 1997. However, the Chinese government is expected to refrain from launching large-scale economic stimulus measures this year, as concerns over the massive local government debt continue to pose a long-term challenge.
