FPO sees baht firming to 32 per dollar in 2026, but Fed-cut bets trimmed

Baht forecast: average 32.0 per dollar

Warothai Kosolpisitkul, an international economics adviser at the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), said the baht is expected to move on a firmer path in 2026 compared with 2025. The FPO forecast a full-year average exchange rate of 32.0 baht per US dollar, within a range of 31.5–32.5, implying a 2.8% appreciation from 2025’s average of 32.9.

What’s supporting the baht

He said key support factors include expectations the US dollar will weaken as the Federal Reserve moves into an easing cycle, a continued rise in global gold prices, and Thailand’s solid external position. Thailand is expected to record a current-account surplus of up to US$12 billion, or 2.0% of GDP.

Market now pricing in two Fed rate cuts

While the baht is still expected to appreciate, the FPO said it has adjusted its view to match current conditions, noting the rise may be less pronounced than previously assessed as global markets have shifted expectations on the timing of Fed rate cuts.

“The main reason for revising this year’s baht outlook depends on the Fed’s interest-rate path. The market now expects fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated — two cuts, down from three — which reduces the pressure for the baht to appreciate this year compared with the previous projection,” Warothai said.

NEER seen rising to 120.7

Using the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) index — which measures the baht’s strength against key trading partners — the FPO forecast Thailand’s NEER at 120.7 in 2026, up 1.2% from 119.2 the previous year.

Trading-partner currencies and “de-dollarisation”

The baht is expected to strengthen broadly in line with the currencies of Thailand’s 15 main trading partners — including the pound sterling, Vietnamese dong, Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, Korean won and yuan — amid a weaker US dollar (“de-dollarisation”), consistent with moves in other Asian currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar.

However, the FPO said the baht is expected to strengthen more than the Japanese yen, given the outlook for continued accommodative monetary policy.

Bloomberg range cited; firms urged to hedge risks

The FPO said its 32.0 baht per dollar target aligns with the average forecast compiled by Bloomberg from leading analysts, which places the baht in a 30.5–33.5 range.

It advised businesses to prepare for risks from global financial-market volatility, exchange-rate swings, geopolitical uncertainty, and US monetary and trade policies that can affect demand for safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and gold.