Thailand’s economy forecasted to grow 2% in 2026, with tourism and exports leading recovery
Thailand’s Ministry of Finance expects the country's GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, driven by steady export performance, a vibrant tourism sector, and private sector investment, despite global trade challenges and domestic debt concerns.
The Thai Ministry of Finance has projected a 2% GDP growth for Thailand in 2026, despite the ongoing global trade uncertainties and domestic challenges. Vinit Visessuvanapoom, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), shared the forecast on Friday, focusing on the resilience of Thailand’s economy amid external challenges and the need for structural reforms to secure long-term growth.
The forecast for 2026 sees continued export growth at 1%, with the private sector driving investment and consumption. While global trade has slowed, Thailand’s strong manufacturing base and strong tourism recovery are expected to play a key role in the overall economic growth.
“Export growth is predicted at 1% despite slowing global demand, while private consumption is expected to grow by 2.5% and private sector investment by 3.2%,” said Vinit. He highlighted the importance of boosting sectors such as New S-Curve industries and high-value services like medical tourism.
With 35.5 million foreign tourists expected in 2026, the tourism sector is anticipated to contribute significantly to the nation’s economic recovery, driving strong service income. However, the private sector will need to work closely with government agencies to ensure sustained growth.
Despite the positive outlook, Vinit warned of structural challenges still facing Thailand’s economy, including high household and SME debt, as well as global geopolitical risks that could pressure export performance.
“We must strengthen our domestic economy and expand our tax base through better integration of the informal sector,” he said. Vinit added that fiscal policies would need to focus on increasing tax efficiency, reducing the country’s reliance on external economic factors, and managing the risks posed by financial vulnerabilities and political transitions.
Regarding government spending, Vinit noted that public investment was expected to contract slightly in 2026 due to political uncertainties, as the new government will likely take time to implement their policy agenda. He stressed that quick action from the new government is needed to ensure smooth budget implementation.
To achieve sustained growth, Thailand will focus on investing in new industries, particularly those in technology, innovation, and digital infrastructure. This New S-Curve will be crucial for keeping the economy competitive in a rapidly changing global landscape. Vinit highlighted digital transformation as one of the pillars that would guide Thailand toward a more resilient economy.
Additionally, the government is exploring new public-private partnerships and creating a more supportive environment for SMEs, which play a crucial role in the economy.
The Ministry of Finance identified three key risks that could affect the country’s growth trajectory:
- Global trade volatility: Especially uncertainties from trade policies and geopolitical tensions that might impact export volumes.
- Financial fragility: Thailand’s high household and SME debt remains a risk, limiting consumer spending and investment recovery.
- Political stability: The need for policy continuity and confidence from investors amid the potential changes in government following the upcoming election.
Thailand’s economy is forecasted to grow 2.2% in 2025, continuing the positive growth from 2024. With this strong foundation, Thailand is positioning itself to navigate challenges and capitalise on new opportunities.
Vinit concluded by stating that the fiscal reforms, along with an ongoing commitment to innovation and stability, are crucial to securing a prosperous and sustainable future for Thailand.
