Economic team meets on Trump tariffs; NESDC warns uncertainty could last all year

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), said that on the afternoon of February 22, the government’s economic team held an informal discussion to assess the situation and consider ways to respond to uncertainty surrounding US import-tariff measures. Those taking part in the discussion included Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance; Suphajee Suthumpun, Minister of Commerce; and Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The meeting agreed that information remains very limited at this stage, as the situation has only just begun, meaning support measures cannot be rolled out immediately. What the government must do urgently is assess what scenarios could arise, prepare in advance, and then gradually introduce measures aligned with what actually unfolds.

“The US import-tariff collection situation has only begun for two days, so all sides are still in a learning phase, waiting to see the real impacts. Initially, the US setting a single import-tariff rate of 15% across the board makes the situation look better in the early period. If we look on the bright side, Thailand gains an additional 4% from the tariff differential, compared with the previous rate of 19%, while competitors such as Vietnam gain 5%. When the tariff rate is equalised, tariffs are no longer the main competitive factor. Instead, businesses in each country will have to compete on fundamentals and the capability of their export industries. Thailand’s exports to the US market have been improving steadily,” he said.

However, Danucha stressed there remains a high degree of uncertainty. He noted that the 15% rate is only a temporary measure, effective for just 150 days. After that period, no one knows whether the rate will shift to 10%, 15% or 20%. The situation could become more challenging if the US changes its approach from setting tariffs by country to targeting tariffs by product or by industry—such as aluminium or steel. He said this is difficult to assess and highly unpredictable, requiring close monitoring and continual information-gathering.

For countries that previously negotiated a 19% tariff rate, or those still in negotiations, there is still no clarity on which rate will apply. Although there has been talk from Donald Trump suggesting that countries that have already concluded negotiations can proceed with that agreed rate, in practice there are still court orders that could trigger legal disputes from other countries. As for whether there will be consideration of retroactive reductions for outstanding tariff liabilities, he said this is also impossible to predict.

On how businesses should adjust under this uncertainty, Danucha advised focusing on marketing to ensure products can continue to be sold. As for tariffs already paid, he said there is a very high chance of lawsuits being filed in US courts to claim refunds, because Thai exporters and end-market importers have been sharing this tariff burden. If an initial case is decided by the court, that ruling would become the benchmark, allowing all businesses to receive the same entitlement.

“Managing public policy in the current situation is uncertain, and the economic risks this year are not limited to tariff measures alone. Military and geopolitical risks are also involved—for example, the movement of US aircraft carrier groups, where it is still unclear what may follow. So, if you ask whether the economy faces risks in the first half of the year or the second half, the answer is: the whole year is risky. Major countries still have high policy uncertainty, meaning we must be prepared to manage risks at all times,” Danucha said.