Eight global crises show gold’s safe-haven pull as Thai target hits 90,000 baht

A review of eight major geopolitical events since 2000 shows that gold has repeatedly benefited from global crises, though the response has not always been immediate or driven by conflict alone, while the Gold Traders Association expects gold in Thailand to rise to 90,000 baht per baht-weight at some point this year.

Data cited by YLG Bullion International show that gold often rises after major shocks, but the scale and timing of the gains vary depending on wider market conditions and other economic drivers.

Past crises show gold often gains after shocks

The eight events and their impact on global gold prices were outlined as follows:

• September 11 attacks and Boston Marathon bombing: Gold surged by as much as 7% in the week after the attacks, before later giving up part of those gains.
• Iraq War: Gold initially reacted negatively, but then rose over the following two months.
• Attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the shooting down of a US surveillance drone: Gold rose only around 2% in the following week, with stronger gains later driven mainly by other factors such as US rate cuts, recession fears and the US-China trade war.
• Attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities: Gold gained about 2% in the week after the incident before easing later.
• US air strike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani: Gold rose around 1% in the following week, before climbing more sharply on the back of other factors, especially the Covid-19 crisis and global monetary easing.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Gold jumped about 5% in the week after the invasion, before trimming gains over the following month and later falling as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates.
• US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025: Gold showed little to no meaningful reaction to the event.
• US operation to topple Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in early 2026: Gold responded positively for a more sustained period, though the rise was also linked to other factors, including concerns over Federal Reserve independence and broader “Sell America” sentiment.

Pawan Nawawattanasap, chief executive officer of YLG Bullion International, said gold, as a safe-haven asset, generally rises during crises, including geopolitical conflicts. However, she cautioned that gold prices do not always move in line with political shocks alone.

Safe-haven demand not always immediate

She said that in many major crises, investors initially sell a wide range of assets, including gold, in order to raise liquidity. Only after the first wave of panic subsides do markets begin to distinguish between assets worth holding for the longer term, with gold often regaining support as a hedge.

Pawan said investors should therefore avoid making long-term decisions based solely on geopolitical developments. She also warned against chasing short-term rallies, saying investors should focus primarily on fundamentals, especially the US economy and the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve.

Still, she said that if a crisis becomes prolonged and begins to hurt the global economy through persistently high energy prices, rising recession risks or increased financial-market volatility, gold is likely to attract fresh safe-haven buying again.

Gold Traders Association sees 90,000 baht in 2026

Jitti Tangsitpakdee, president of the Gold Traders Association, said gold prices remained highly volatile and warned short-term speculators to exercise caution. He also advised against trading gold bars over the weekend, when global markets are closed and price direction becomes harder to assess.

Despite the volatility, Jitti said gold prices in Thailand could rise to 90,000 baht per baht-weight this year, with that level potentially being reached in the third quarter of 2026.

He said whether prices moved beyond that level would depend largely on how far the conflict in the Middle East expanded and how long it lasted.