PTT says oil prices may ease in Q3 if Middle East conflict cools
PTT said oil prices could gradually decline in the third quarter of 2026 if the Middle East conflict eases quickly, though any fall would not be immediate.
- PTT forecasts that oil prices could gradually decline in the third quarter of 2026, contingent on the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
- The company cautioned that any price drop would not be immediate, even if the war eases, due to stock in transit and difficulties in securing alternative energy supplies.
- To manage the situation, PTT has diversified its crude oil import sources to reduce reliance on the Middle East and is running its refineries at over 100% capacity.
- PTT has also prioritized domestic supply by increasing diesel production and sales while significantly cutting exports.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking invited Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, to join its assessment of the energy price situation on April 1, 2026.
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said PTT had briefed the committee on the oil price situation, which has been affected by the war in the Middle East since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on February 28, 2026.
PTT said that if the war situation eases quickly, oil prices could gradually decline in the third quarter of 2026. However, any drop in oil prices would not happen immediately because of stock in transit and constraints on securing alternative energy supplies.
PTT also explained to the committee that it had managed operations transparently across the entire supply chain. It has adjusted its crude procurement plan by diversifying import sources worldwide to reduce reliance on the Middle East, improving refinery efficiency to handle a wider range of crude grades, and running refineries at more than 100% capacity.
It has also increased diesel production by 7% from normal levels and managed fuel reserve volumes by accelerating oil distribution through all transport channels, while continuing to serve more than 2,409 PTT Station outlets.
The 2026 Brent crude oil assumption has been set at an average of US$88 per barrel, on the condition that domestic energy prices remain market-based.
A PTT source told Krungthep Turakij that PTT had explained the continued rise in oil production in line with domestic demand as follows. The figures and sequence below match the source report.
- Diesel production under normal conditions stands at 48 million litres per day. However, during March 1-29, 2026, production rose to 51.6 million litres per day, an increase of 8%.
- Domestic diesel sales under normal conditions stand at 42 million litres per day. However, during March 1-29, 2026, they rose to 48.7 million litres per day, an increase of 16%. Exports normally stand at 6.3 million litres per day, but during March 1-29, 2026, exports fell to 2.6 million litres per day, down 59%.
- Diesel sales to jobbers under normal conditions stand at 5 million litres per day, comprising 4.16 million litres per day for regular jobbers and 0.84 million litres per day for occasional jobbers. However, during March 1-29, 2026, sales were made only to regular jobbers at 5.64 million litres per day, an increase of 8%.
During the war, PTT suspended sales to occasional jobbers and supplied only regular jobbers, prioritising deliveries to service stations first. Sales to regular jobbers at the same price as at the pump took effect on March 21, 2026.
- Sales by PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, under normal conditions stand at 41.37 million litres per day, comprising 27.47 million litres of diesel and 13.9 million litres of petrol. However, during March 1-29, 2026, sales rose to 47.73 million litres per day, comprising 32.74 million litres of diesel and 14.99 million litres of petrol.
OR’s diesel and petrol sales increased by 6.4 million litres per day, or 15% above normal, with diesel in particular running 19% above normal.
