Gold imports push Thailand into Q1 trade deficit as Goldman sees stronger global demand

NESDC says gold imports tipped trade balance into the red

Thailand’s import of around 300 billion baht worth of gold in the first quarter helped push the country into a trade deficit for the first time in 14 quarters, the National Economic and Social Development Council said, as Goldman Sachs forecast that global central-bank gold purchases would rise to 60 tonnes per month in 2026.

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the NESDC, said Thailand’s goods imports rose sharply in the first quarter, reaching US$95.399 billion, up 33.1% from the same period last year. The surge marked the strongest import growth in 18 quarters and pushed the trade balance into a US$0.3 billion deficit, the first deficit in 14 quarters.

Gold speculation drives import surge

Danucha said gold was a major factor behind the swing into deficit. Thailand imported around 300 billion baht worth of gold in the quarter, partly because more people were speculating in gold as an investment asset.

On some days, he said, gold trading value was even higher than trading value on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

“If gold imports are excluded, Thailand’s trade balance would still be positive, or in surplus,” Danucha said.

Capital goods also boost imports

Apart from gold, Thailand also imported large volumes of integrated-circuit parts, printed circuit boards, machinery and equipment.

These imports were linked to preparations for future export production, especially in the electronics sector, where investment and export demand have continued to expand.

NESDC expects Thailand’s goods imports to keep rising this year, forecasting full-year imports of US$356 billion, up 14.2% in value and 8.4% in volume from the previous year.

Goldman Sachs sees central banks buying more gold

The domestic gold rush comes as global demand for gold remains strong.

Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a May 15 note that central-bank gold purchases are expected to average 60 tonnes per month in 2026. They said the 12-month moving average of central-bank purchases reached 50 tonnes in March, up from a previous estimate of 29 tonnes.

The bank said central banks continue to show strong interest in gold, with geopolitical developments reinforcing long-term diversification into the metal. The World Gold Council estimated that central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, up from 208 tonnes in the previous quarter.

Gold price outlook remains bullish but volatile

Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish gold-price target, forecasting that prices could rise to US$5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by private-sector and emerging-market central-bank diversification into gold. Reuters earlier reported that Goldman raised its end-2026 forecast to US$5,400 from US$4,900.

However, Goldman remains cautious in the short term. The bank said gold could be used as a source of cash if private investors face liquidity pressure, especially if equity markets fall amid higher interest rates and weaker growth expectations.

Higher energy and raw-material costs remain risks

NESDC also warned that Thailand faces risks from higher import costs, especially energy and raw materials such as urea fertiliser, as tensions in the Middle East continue to affect global prices.

Thailand imports around 46–50% of its crude oil from the Middle East, meaning prolonged high oil and fertiliser prices could add further pressure to living costs.

The figures show that Thailand’s trade deficit was not caused by weak exports alone, but by a sharp import surge led by gold, capital goods and higher-cost raw materials. For policymakers, the key issue is whether gold imports remain a temporary result of speculation, or become a longer-running drag on Thailand’s trade balance.