JSCCIB lowers Thai GDP outlook as energy and labour risks persist
The joint private-sector committee lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%-1.6%, citing high energy prices and labour shortages.
- The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has lowered its 2026 Thai GDP growth forecast to a range of 1.2%-1.6%, down from its previous estimate of 1.6%-2.0%.
- The downgrade is attributed to risks from persistently high energy prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, which has also caused the inflation forecast to be raised significantly to 2.0%-3.0%.
- Significant labour shortages in many business sectors are also cited as a major risk affecting manufacturing and exports, prompting the committee to urge government action on migrant worker permits.
Pimjai Leeissaranukul, chair of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), chaired a meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) on Tuesday (May 19, 2026).
Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand, and Worrakrit Jaruwongpak, secretary-general of the Thai Bankers’ Association, attended the meeting at Room 802 of the Federation of Thai Industries.
Pimjai said the conflict in the Middle East had dragged on into its third month, and the Strait of Hormuz had yet to resume normal operations, keeping energy prices high.
The impact on economic activity from goods shortages was already being seen in the aviation sector, affecting tourists travelling on flights from the Middle East to Thailand.
Thailand’s economy grew by 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026, but growth was limited to some sectors.
Private investment expanded well, the public sector accelerated disbursement, and exports grew strongly on digital technology and AI products in line with global trends, resulting in tech products expanding by more than 45% for a 12th consecutive quarter.
However, export growth was highly concentrated and did not benefit the manufacturing sector broadly, while risks to the Thai economy could be higher.
The JSCCIB assessed that Thai GDP in 2026 would expand by 1.2%-1.6%, down from its previous January-March 2026 estimate of 1.6%-2.0%.
It maintained its export forecast at between -1.5% and -0.5%, while inflation was raised to a range of 2.0%-3.0% from 0.2%-0.7%.
The JSCCIB’s forecast range is based on key assumptions: average Brent crude of about US$90.3 per barrel in 2026; floating domestic fuel prices; and, in the lower-bound inflation case of 2.0%, an expected halving of the oil excise tax from the current rate.
Thailand should also accelerate investment to restructure its energy system, increase renewable energy output, reduce reliance on imported oil and gas, and speed up investment to raise potential under Reinvent Thailand, which would further support economic growth ahead.
However, the JSCCIB called on the government to urgently address labour shortages in labour-intensive industries.
It said the current situation showed that many business sectors were facing significant labour shortages, which could affect manufacturing, exports and national competitiveness.
The JSCCIB also said the government should accelerate concrete short- and medium-term measures.
In the urgent phase, extending work permits for migrant workers living and working in Thailand is a necessary measure to prevent a large number of workers from immediately leaving the system.
At the same time, the public sector should quickly prepare a systematic and efficient management plan for migrant workers of all nationalities that is in line with the long-term needs of the economy, to maintain labour stability and the country’s investment confidence.
The JSCCIB will present proposals to the prime minister and the labour minister for consideration, with a view to accelerating measures to resolve the issue as soon as possible.
The JSCCIB also thanked the prime minister and the government for issuing an order on Monday (May 18, 2026) to appoint the Anti-Corruption Coordination Committee.
It said the move was an important step in concretely raising the country’s anti-corruption drive, and showed the government’s commitment to creating transparency, strengthening good governance and raising confidence among the business sector and the public.
The JSCCIB said a joint committee between the public and private sectors would help push forward integrated solutions to corruption, covering improvements to laws, regulations and state permit processes, as well as the use of technology to increase transparency, reduce discretion and facilitate services for the public and business sector.
The measures would play an important role in raising Thailand’s good governance standards and supporting its goal of joining the OECD in the future.
