Government eyes 2026 GDP revision as war risks ease

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said on Monday that an end to the Middle East war would be a strongly positive signal for both the global and Thai economies, as the world would move into recovery mode.

He said this would help reduce the risk of a global economic crisis that had begun with volatility in energy prices. Although energy prices may not fall back to pre-war levels, an end to the conflict would help ease the situation.

The government is therefore preparing to review its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to reflect changing circumstances and new positive factors. However, Ekniti said the assessment would still need to be made cautiously because global volatility remained high.

He said the situation had shifted from an energy crisis to a cost crisis, with higher costs being passed on to consumer goods. This has affected grassroots communities and small vendors through rising inflation.

The government is focusing its support through the Thais Help Thais Plus scheme, which has seen participating shops continue to record higher sales. The scheme not only helps reduce costs and improve access to funding, but also teaches business operators how to use AI to analyse sales and support long-term sustainability.

Bt200bn energy transition plan to continue

Ekniti said the government still needed to push ahead with the 200-billion-baht borrowing plan under the emergency loan decree to support energy transition.

He said oil production sites around the world had been damaged by the war, meaning oil prices were likely to remain high for at least another one to two years.

If Thailand does not accelerate its adjustment and reduce its current heavy dependence on imported oil and natural gas, the country will face high risks if another crisis occurs in the future, he said.

“We want to help both people and the transition. For example, promoting solar-panel installation can solve short-term problems by reducing electricity costs for the public, while also providing a long-term solution by reducing the country’s dependence on imported energy,” Ekniti said.

On the review of eligibility criteria for the state welfare card, Ekniti said the permanent secretary for finance was still examining the data and figures clearly. The matter will therefore not be submitted to the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.

Shops urged to join online platforms

Ekniti also said the Thais Help Thais Plus scheme had now opened for shops to sell products through various online platforms.

Krungthai Bank on Monday introduced its “AI Nok Krasip” tool, designed to help participating shops expand sales, analyse sales figures, reduce costs and assess operating costs.

He said the government wanted to support small retailers whose costs had increased.

Several platforms joined the launch, including GrabFood, LINE MAN, Robinhood and ShopeeFood. They will help participating shops expand sales and remove limitations that previously restricted many small businesses to selling only in their local areas.

Ekniti said the four platforms had already proved their impact during the Khon La Khrueng Plus co-payment scheme. Shops that joined platform-based sales saw sales increase by 500% to 600%.

After the Khon La Khrueng Plus scheme ended, sales remained 100% to 200% higher, he said.

The government therefore wants small and micro businesses to learn digital skills, online sales and upskilling and reskilling. Previous projects have shown that participating businesses can increase sales.

Ekniti said the next step was to build on those gains by using AI. Shops would not need to hire staff to handle accounting or analysis, as AI Nok Krasip could help analyse whether the cost of goods purchased by a shop was higher than that of competitors.

The government is inviting more shops to join the scheme, saying they should not be concerned because participating platforms will provide guidance.

Ekniti said the scheme would help increase income and reduce costs sustainably.