Land Bridge termination proposed over low returns and fiscal risks

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Minister of Finance and chair of the committee studying ways to advance the Land Bridge project, joined the chairs of its 3 working groups in announcing the conclusions of their study into the transport infrastructure development project linking the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea at Government House on Friday (July 24, 2026).

The working-group chairs were the secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), a representative of the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and a representative of the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Transport.

Ekniti said the committee had completed the study before the 90-day deadline set by the prime minister.

It found that the Land Bridge project had low prospects for implementation because it risked imposing a burden on the budget and faced risks on multiple fronts.

The committee therefore resolved that the findings should be compiled into a report for submission to the prime minister and the Cabinet, seeking approval to terminate the project in its original form.

He also confirmed that no losses had yet been incurred through land investment or construction because neither had begun.

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the NESDC and chair of Working Group 1, outlined the financial risks.

An update of the study to reflect global economic conditions in 2025 found that the financial rate of return had fallen from 8% to just 4.8%.

The net present value (NPV), previously projected to be positive by more than THB600 billion, had instead fallen to minus THB10.287 billion.

Cargo volumes were also insufficient to make the project worthwhile, with container volumes down 15-16%, reducing returns by 38%.

In addition, 9 of the world’s 10 leading shipping lines had already invested in other similar projects, leaving only one operator with a small market share.

Operational risks were also identified because the ship-road-rail cargo transfer process involved multiple transfer points.

The estimate allowed just over 3 days and did not account for on-site risks, making the process highly risky in practice.

The representative of the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, who chaired Working Group 2, identified 9 main environmental concerns.

These included the project’s location in fragile areas, with routes crossing extensive forest and high mountain terrain, affecting ecosystems and wildlife.

Ranong province contains the country’s largest mangrove forest.

The area is also a biosphere reserve and a wetland of global importance.

The project could affect a potential World Heritage listing and harm tourism because construction areas overlap coral reefs and world-class diving sites.

It could also affect underwater archaeological sites that have yet to be surveyed.

The representative of the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Transport said consultations showed that opinion remained divided.

Opponents were concerned about environmental issues and transparency.

The recommendation was that future large-scale projects should have consistent and transparent information, communicated in easily understood language with less technical jargon, and should include comprehensive stakeholder analysis covering vulnerable groups and local communities.

At the end of the briefing, Ekniti outlined the future approach.

Although the Land Bridge plan would be shelved, the government would instead develop existing capacity in line with private-sector demand:

• Develop Ranong Port: upgrade the existing port on the Andaman coast and make full use of its capacity.
• Connect the missing rail link: develop a railway linking Ranong Port with the main network to connect freight from China via the north with ports on the Gulf of Thailand.

“This project is an important lesson: large-scale investment must begin by clearly considering the country’s strategy and the strategic environmental dimension before any agency starts studying individual subprojects,” Ekniti said.