JSCCIB Unveils Data-Driven Rescue Plan for Thailand's 'K-Down' Industries
Joint private sector body pushes for integrated government data to target struggling SMEs, as it holds 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.6–2.0%
- The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has unveiled a data-driven plan to support struggling SMEs and industries, known as the "K-down" sector, in Thailand's uneven economic recovery.
- The core of the plan is to integrate comprehensive government and private sector data—including factory production, tax, and social security records—to precisely identify businesses in need of assistance.
- This data will be used to triage companies, providing targeted support to viable businesses that can adjust, while facilitating a "soft landing" for non-viable ones, which is deemed more cost-effective than broad subsidies.
- A key pillar of the strategy is the "Made in Thailand" initiative, which encourages the government to increase procurement from domestic SMEs to stimulate the local economy and support employment.
A joint private sector body pushes for integrated government data to target struggling SMEs, as it holds the 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.6–2.0%.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has set out a detailed, data-driven roadmap to support industries and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) caught in the declining arm of Thailand's "K-shaped" economic recovery, while holding its 2026 GDP growth forecast steady at 1.6 to 2.0 per cent.
The plan was announced at a press conference on Wednesday, chaired by Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA), alongside Panitarn Pavarolavidya, secretary-general of the Federation of Thai Industries, and Kasemsit Pathomsak, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, at the Golden Tulip Sovereign Hotel in Bangkok.
A world economy growing unevenly
Payong opened by outlining the uncertain global backdrop facing Thailand in the second half of 2026, citing ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence as the two forces driving a "K-shaped" pattern in global growth. He noted that the International Monetary Fund's latest revisions reflected this divide: economies heavily reliant on energy imports are expected to slow, while those benefiting from the digital and AI wave – including several Asian economies, Thailand among them – are set to expand more strongly.
At the same time, inflationary pressure stemming from the Middle East situation has yet to ease, fuelling market expectations of higher US interest rates and contributing to a weaker Asian currency environment, managed in part through yen-euro dynamics under what he described as a new model of coordinated central bank policy.
Thailand's own K-shaped divide
Domestically, Payong said Thailand faces the challenge of adapting to, and capturing value from, the global digital wave, even as exports and investment continue to perform strongly.
Export values grew 17.6 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, driven chiefly by technology goods — which now account for 26.5 per cent of total exports and grew by a striking 45.9 per cent year-on-year, in line with the global artificial intelligence boom.
However, he cautioned that this growth in the "K-up" manufacturing segment has not yet translated into broad-based value creation across the domestic economy.
He called for urgent efforts to raise local content levels to meet regional value chain (RVC) requirements, to promote domestic production that reduces reliance on imported goods, to build stronger local supply chains, and to plan for quality job creation so that Thailand can fully capture the benefits of the wave of foreign investment expected to flow into the country.
He added that the "K-down" group of struggling industries needs to be identified clearly and specifically, sector by sector, so that assistance can be properly targeted.
Prop up or ease down: a data-led triage
To address the divide, the JSCCIB is calling for a comprehensive integration of data held across government and the private sector — data that is up to date, comprehensive, and subject to rigorous verification — to enable the design of support measures that are precise, targeted and measurable.
This includes factory production data (Form R.8), social security records, and tax data, linked down to the level of individual "I6" or "T-Code" business classifications, allowing policymakers to identify with precision which businesses remain viable and which require urgent intervention.
"We need to separate the K-down group into those we prop up, to give them time to adjust, and those who may not survive and need a soft landing," Payong explained, arguing that supporting genuinely viable businesses is far more cost-effective in the long run than providing continuous subsidies to enterprises that are ultimately unable to survive.
'Made in Thailand' and the 'Connect the Dots' approach
A central pillar of the JSCCIB's strategy is the "Made in Thailand" (MiT) initiative, under which the committee is urging the government to increase state procurement from domestic SMEs, even where prices are marginally higher, in order to stimulate the real sector and support local employment.
"The best way to solve household and SME debt is to ensure they have an income that allows them to take care of themselves," Payong said, pointing to a "Connect the Dots" philosophy that links local production capacity directly to government demand.
This data integration agenda extends beyond industry support. The JSCCIB is also pushing for better-targeted welfare assistance through the latest round of the state welfare card scheme so that support is matched more fairly and precisely to individual need while reducing abuse of legal loopholes through stronger checks on the use of nominee arrangements.
Payong described this as an essential first step towards genuine government data connectivity, in line with the broader "Reinvent Thailand" agenda, and linked it directly to efforts to combat online crime, "grey" capital, the informal economy, and the leakage of baht from the formal financial system, as tracked by the Bank of Thailand.
Separately, the committee is also advocating for the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) to serve as a pilot area for a one-stop service model for doing business, under the Facilitation of Business Operations Act, with all of these initiatives resting on the government's ability to connect data systematically and continuously, both between state agencies and between the state and private sector.
Looking ahead, the JSCCIB said it stood ready to support the government's five national strategic investment hubs: Investment and Industry Transformation, AI and Digital, Green Economy, Financial Services, and Medical.
Analysts expect foreign direct investment flowing into ASEAN to grow by a further US$544 billion by 2035, and the committee argued Thailand is well placed to compete for its share, pointing to Board of Investment (BOI) applications of 1.47 trillion baht in the first half of 2026 alone — up 37 per cent on the same period last year — as evidence of the country's improving investment appeal.
To showcase this readiness to global investors, the JSCCIB confirmed that the Bangkok Business Summit 2026 will take place on 3rd September, held in partnership with the World Bank.
Forecast at a glance
Under its updated framework, the JSCCIB expects GDP growth of 1.6 to 2.0 per cent for 2026, alongside export growth of 8.0 to 10.0 per cent and inflation of 2.5 to 3.0 per cent — a marked improvement on the committee's earlier April–May forecast, which had pencilled in GDP growth of just 1.2 to 1.6 per cent and a contraction in exports of between 0.5 and 1.5 per cent.
By comparison, the Thai economy grew 2.4 per cent in 2025, with exports expanding 12.9 per cent and inflation at minus 0.1 per cent for the year, according to figures from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), the Ministry of Commerce, and JSCCIB estimates.
