Thai trade deficit with China widens as imports outpace exports

International trade between Thailand and China remains brisk, but the overall picture points to structural fragility as the trade deficit continues to widen.

Thansettakij’s review of data from the Information and Communication Technology Centre, Office of the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with the Customs Department, found that Thailand-China trade totalled THB1.278 trillion in the first three months of 2026, up 18.78% from the same period a year earlier.

However, Thailand’s exports to China were worth THB299.423 billion, up just 0.70%, while imports from China climbed to THB979.16 billion, up 25.68%.

This left Thailand with a THB679.737 billion trade deficit with China, a 41% increase.

Thailand’s export structure to China still relies on industrial and agricultural goods.

The top five key products were computers, equipment and parts, worth THB43.264 billion, down 4%; rubber products, THB33.968 billion, down 1.9%; fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, THB23.392 billion, up 36%; copper and articles of copper, THB22.586 billion, up 80%; and other industrial goods, THB18.132 billion, up 71%.

Imports from China remained concentrated in industrial goods and raw materials.

The top five categories were computers and parts, THB55.757 billion, up 30%; other metal ores and metal scrap, THB43.16 billion, up 48%; iron, steel and products, THB35.241 billion, down 1.2%; metal products, THB34.376 billion, up 32%; and electrical circuit boards, THB31.371 billion, up 2%.

The accelerating deficit trend is in line with the picture for all of 2025, when Thailand’s trade deficit with China increased significantly.

Thailand-China trade for the year stood at THB4.87 trillion, up 18.82%. Thailand exported THB1.30 trillion, up 5.06%, while imports reached THB3.56 trillion, up as much as 27.78%.

This resulted in a THB2.26 trillion trade deficit with China, up 39.90% from 2024.

Assoc Prof Aat Pisanwanich, an independent academic and expert on international and ASEAN economics, said in an analysis published by Thansettakij that Thailand’s trade deficit with China in 2026 could set a new record, exceeding THB2.2 trillion, due to three key structural pressures.

First, China has adjusted its export direction, shifting markets from the United States towards Asia and ASEAN after facing pressure from the trade war and US import tariffs.

This has caused Chinese goods to flow into the region in significantly greater volumes.

Second, in terms of investment and supply chains, China is the No.1 investor in Thailand, leading to higher imports of machinery, raw materials and parts from China to support the domestic production base.

Third, the expansion of e-commerce and online platforms has allowed low-priced Chinese goods to reach Thai consumers faster and more widely.

Domestic goods are also being increasingly replaced by imports from China, reflected in capacity utilisation rates below 30% in Thailand’s steel and rubber product industries.

Dr Aat said Thailand ran a US$67.8 billion trade deficit with China in 2025, or about THB2.2 trillion, and the deficit was likely to increase further in 2026.

Thailand, meanwhile, still had a trade surplus with the United States of about US$52 billion, reflecting the role of the US market as an important support for Thai exports in the period ahead.

The overall picture indicates that Thailand is facing challenges from its continued reliance on rising imports of Chinese goods, while the competitiveness of domestic production remains under pressure from both costs and price competition.

This is an important policy challenge that requires accelerated adjustment in the next phase.