Thai stocks trail in 2025, while gold shines

2025 became a year in which Thailand’s stock market faced more negative forces than supportive ones, alongside persistent uncertainty and volatility—both from global conditions and the domestic economy—heightening concerns over the outlook for listed-company earnings.

The result was another year of negative returns that left Thai equities trailing global peers. Liquidity fell notably, corporate earnings softened, and retail investors reduced their participation.

Trump tariffs and Thai politics jolt sentiment

A dominant drag on Thai equities throughout the year was US trade policy under President Donald Trump. Early in 2025, Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on countries running trade surpluses with the United States, with high rates that were widely seen as targeting China most directly.

Thailand was also hit, facing a tariff rate of 39% and a negotiation deadline of August 1, 2025. The market started the year with hope—opening at 1,402 points—before tariff-related uncertainty fed into concerns over a trade-war impact on listed-company profits.

During the first three months of 2025, foreign investors pulled a combined US$4.16 billion (more than 140 billion baht) from four Southeast Asian stock markets: Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Negotiations later reduced the figure applied to Thailand to 19%, closer to regional levels, but the episode marked the start of a shift in global trade and investment patterns, as businesses adjusted investment flows, production bases and supply chains to avoid high-tariff exposure.

Politics then became an increasingly direct market driver. Thailand changed prime ministers three times in the same year—from Srettha Thavisin to Paetongtarn Shinawatra—helping lift confidence and pushing the index to its annual high of 1,320 points.

A fresh shock followed, linked to an audio clip related to border discussions with Cambodia’s leadership, culminating in a Constitutional Court ruling that removed Paetongtarn from office. The index slid to 1,238.98 points. Anutin Charnvirakul later formed a minority government that lasted about four months before parliament was dissolved in December.

A banner year for gold and precious metals

While Thai equities struggled, gold and precious metals dominated returns. Platinum surged about 160%, silver rose more than 150%, and palladium climbed over 100%.

Gold stood out as the most widely followed winner. Global gold prices delivered a 70% return in 2025, repeatedly hitting record highs—around 50 times—with prices moving above US$3,500 and rising past US$4,500.

Domestic gold prices also rallied sharply. From around 42,000 baht per baht-weight at the end of 2024, the price rose to 54,000 by April, pushed through 60,500, peaked at 67,400, and after profit-taking eased back before ending the year around 66,500 baht per baht-weight.

Central bank demand remained a key tailwind, with the World Gold Council noting that central banks have been net buyers for 15 consecutive years. China’s central bank was a prominent buyer, reinforcing demand and helping keep prices elevated.

IPO market slumps as fundraising stalls

Capital raising via Thailand’s equity market weakened sharply. A market that had long served as a major fundraising venue in Asia saw the IPO pipeline slow, hit by thin liquidity, investors trapped in falling stocks, limited new inflows and newly listed shares often trading below offer prices.

Across 2025, there were 18 IPOs in total—six on the SET and 12 on the MAI—raising 8,991.70 million baht. The total offering value was 13,293.24 million baht, with combined market capitalisation of 77,759.68 million baht—down significantly from periods when IPO market cap frequently reached the hundred-billion-baht level.

In the first 11 months of 2025, larger markets raised more through listings, including Japan (US$5.554 billion), Hong Kong (US$5.434 billion) and South Korea (US$2.913 billion). In the region, Malaysia raised US$1.05 billion, Indonesia US$930 million and Vietnam US$413 million.