Will election poll make a difference?

A FREQUENTLY asked question during most elections is whether an election poll has any impact on the outcome. The federal election in Germany today may provide some answers.
It will be the first time Germany will publish an opinion poll of the election on the morning before voting begins, according to Helko Glebler, a researcher at Social Science Research Centre Berlin (WZB).
Glebler who conducts research on political campaigning and election behaviour, told a group of international journalists yesterday.
“We don’t know yet what the impact the poll will have. We just assume that it might mobilise voters [to come to vote] or it could have a relatively neutral impact,” he said.
The poll will be released on the eve of the election, he said. The poll has sparked controversy.
Like many countries, including Thailand, there is a law prohibited the media from publishing issue that favour any candidate or party after 6pm on the eve of the election until 6pm on election day.
As the race is getting close, it appears all parties are hoping to win over the undecided crowd, said to form 30-per-cent of eligible voters.
Officers from three parties, Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Social Democratic Party (SPD), and Alternative for Germany (AfD) echoed the same hope during talks with reporters.
Frank Hansel, member of the managing committee Berlin of the AfD said they are seeking a 30-per-cent backing from people who never voted before or from those who did not vote in the last election.
The AfD yesterday said it hoped to obtain 8 per cent of the vote. Some polls gave the anti-euro party, founded by a professor who felt the euro currency had been a disaster for Germany, 5 percent in the poll.
On the eve of election day the most talked about topic was the coalition make-up. The latest poll showed the governing coalition has a narrow lead of just one percent.
A senior officer from CDU, who asked not to be named, said the party saw three likely outcomes for a coalition.
First, CDU/CSU and FDP on condition that the FDP passes the 5-per-cent hurdle required for representation in Parliament .
Second, CDU/CSU and SPD without AfD in Parliament. Third, CDU/CSU and SPD with AfD in Parliament.
The senior officer said the second formula would be more critical for CDU because SPD has a different political ideology from CDU’s.
“This coalition could lead to an unstable government. Perhaps we have to change the government after two years,” he said.