First, we have to be aware that Pheu Thai and the UDD are close allies, despite their efforts to deny this. In reality, though, both rely on each other for their existence. That’s why its very rare for Pheu Thai and the UDD to make a decision that is different – even when they have different views on a subject.
Second, the two groups both use the principles of majority democracy to support their legitimacy, loudly protesting against any undemocratic moves to gain power, such as through a coup, and they can both still get backing as long as they adhere to this standard.
However, this time round, their supporters have started wondering if Pheu Thai and UDD have bowed to the coup-makers by stopping their political activities. Many key figures from both Pheu Thai and the UDD have reported to the new power clique and are all acting like “good boys” of the junta. Some even took part in reconciliation forums held by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
No wonder their supporters are getting suspicious and wondering if Pheu Thai and the red-shirt leaders are looking after their own skin.
Politicians from Pheu Thai and the UDD have both been telling supporters that they cannot defy the junta. However, some of their hardline supporters want them to try harder to protect the mandate given to them in the previous general election.
Though many supporters appear to understand the situation, it still seems as if they don’t feel very comfortable with this situation.
A lot of attention is now on Pheu Thai and the UDD to see if they will join the CDC’s procedure to gather opinions from the public, as their participation in this process might alienate supporters even further.
Pheu Thai and the UDD need to maintain their legitimacy in the eyes of their supporters as well as maintain a balance of power at a time when the military rulers are watching them closely.
However, if they jump onto the junta’s reform bandwagon, Pheu Thai and the UDD will lose backing from their supporters, which will only worsen the situation. So why do they really need to maintain this support system at a time when the junta is trying to get rid of the political polarity? The answer is that Pheu Thai and the UDD will need their supporters again when the military rulers call an election.
Both Pheu Thai and the UDD appear to be confident that they will return to power once elections are held. All they need to do is wait for the NCPO to keep its promise of “returning power to the people” after the new constitution is drafted.
If the junta continues holding on to power and no elections are held after the promised one-year timeframe, then the time will be right for Pheu Thai’s red-shirt supporters to come out and pressure the junta.
Should this scenario really take place, then the streets will be filled with not just red shirts, many non-colour-coded Thais will also be calling on the junta to keep its promise.
If on the other hand, Pheu Thai and the UDD aren’t able to maintain strong backing, then they might find themselves abandoned when the day arrives.
Hence, it is very necessary for both parties to achieve a balance between pleasing the junta and its supporters – at least for as long as this post-coup government is in power.