What the future holds for Thai politics after Bangkok by-election setback for ruling coalition
There is a possibility of Parliament being dissolved or a coup d'etat in the near future, as the country has changed a lot over the past three years, experts said during the “Voice of The Nation” programme on Monday.
The by-election results from Bangkok's Constituency 9 on Sunday have proved that people have made their voices heard via the ballot box instead of holding demonstrations, said Voranai Vanijaka, the leader of Ruam Thai United Party.
Pheu Thai Party candidate Surachart Thienthong decisively won the by-election in Bangkok’s Constituency 9 on Sunday, trouncing the ruling party’s candidate.
According to unofficial results after the counting of ballots at all 280 polling stations, Surachart had won 29,416 votes, considerably more than Move Forward Party candidate Krunphol Tiansuwan who was second with 20,361 votes while Kla Party candidate Atavit Suwannapakdee came a close third with 20,047 votes.
“Thailand has changed a lot over the past three years due to anti-government protests, political struggles and a cultural revolution,” he said.
This by-election has shown that the people have lost faith in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party which can be seen from the party’s candidate Saranrat Jenjaka getting less than 10,000 votes.
He said this defeat could lead to further changes in Palang Pracharath. He, however, did not expect the government to dissolve Parliament soon.
“It is for the people to decide whether they want to move Thailand towards democracy or a dictatorship,” he added.
Charupol Ruangsuwan, a lecturer at Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Science, said the Thai political situation has been swinging between the government coalition and the opposition parties over the past three years.
He said political moves, changing public sentiment, political campaigns and the candidates were behind the political swing.
"The public sentiment is swinging towards opposition parties as many people are bored with the current government," he said.
He said anything could happen in Thai politics, as both the ruling coalition and the opposition parties have similar number of MPs in Parliament.
He advised people to keep an eye on the political situation because the tussle between the ruling coalition and the opposition parties was likely to intensify.
Nation Building Institute chairman Prof Dr Kriengsak Chareonwongsak said Bangkok’s Constituency 9 by-election results would reverberate in Thai politics as it pointed to a change in Bangkokians' sentiment, especially that of young people.
He said Pheu Thai candidate Surachart Thienthong had won the by-election as he has closer ties with low-income people living in Lak Si district compared to Chatuchak district where medium- and high-income people live.
He advised people to closely follow the Bangkok governor election as whoever wins that election will determine the decision on the general election.
"Pheu Thai would gain an advantage in Parliament if Chadchart Sittipunt wins the upcoming Bangkok governor election, otherwise dissolution of Parliament could happen between August and October," he said.
"If Parliament is dissolved, there is a 50 per cent chance that a coup d'etat would happen depending on the agreement between various sectors, especially powerful business tycoons and the junta.”
He added that people should be careful and ready to cope with the emerging situation.
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