One Belt, One Road: ONE BIG LIFT

CHINA’S AMBITIOUS “One Belt and One Road” initiative could serve as a new driver of the Asean and global economies, according to foreign media representatives attending a forum in Beijing last week.

Citing a UK study, Dante Ang, chairman emeritus at The Manila Times, told the gathering of media representatives from more than 60 countries that the Chinese initiative had the potential to benefit 63 per cent of the world’s population and add an estimated US$2.1 trillion (Bt76 trillion) to global gross domestic product.

According to this study, the 60-plus countries covered by this initiative have infrastructure investment needs worth an estimated $8 trillion.

Ang proposed that the Asian Development Bank should work with the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as well as the US and Europe to support the initiative.

Ang said political and territorial conflicts in the South China Sea should not be allowed to hinder implementation of this initiative.

His remarks were supported by Chian Siong Lee of Singapore’s Channel News Asia who said the value of trade under the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement had jumped dramatically.

While the Belt and Road initiative and AIIB are quite new since China only proposed the vision about three years ago, the economic growth prospects are bright, with China-Asean trade likely to top $500 billion this year and $1 trillion in 2020 – faster than previously projected.

However, Budiman Tanuredjo of the Kompas Daily in Indonesia, said China must effectively communicate with all 63 countries which supported the Belt and Road initiative and the AIIB in order to avoid any misunderstanding.

While the initiative is aimed at boosting the development and economic growth of participating countries, there must also be widespread political consent among countries concerned, he said, noting that the slower economic growth rate in China is another uncertainty facing the initiative.

Makhdoom Babar of the Daily Mail in Pakistan said the China-Pakistan economic corridor was part of the Belt and Road initiative, adding that cross-border security and militancy were among the major challenges that had to be tackled by proponents of an initiative. The initiative will connect China and Southeast, East and South Asia with Central Asia, Europe and Africa via land and maritime routes along the ancient Silk Road, which dates back more than two millenia.

Babar cited China’s Xinjiang province, which faces Central Asia, as a militancy example given the local Muslim-led separatist movement has been a major security issue. He proposed the establishment of a joint cross-border security mechanism to tackle these problems while the relevant countries should promote the use of social media as part of the overall solution because doing so would result in more people-to-people contract.

Manish Chand of the India Writes Network said the Belt and Road initiative was a grand vision encompassing half the world’s population, but its success as an “Asia Renaissance” would depend on sustained dialogue among the concerned countries. However, India has not yet officially expressed its support for the initiative, he said, noting that his country may support the grand vision on a project-by-project basis with a focus on commercial and connectivity benefits.

Chand also urged China and other countries to re-build the “Silk Road of hearts and minds”.

Chinese officials have touted the idea of broad-based consultation to implement the initiative, saying that it will not play solo and the implementation will be a “symphony” played by all member countries.

 Despite its so-called peaceful rise and inclusive cross-border development policy, the initiative will likely be undermined by the US, according to Michael Chossudovsky of Canada’s Centre for Research on Globalisation.

Given the extensive scale of land and maritime routes under this initiative, there are certainly several geopolitical issues such as territorial disputes in the East and the South China Sea involving Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and other Asian countries, he noted.