Trump victory a threat to BPO industry in Philippines

In a research note issued on the eve of the US election, Citi Philippines economist Jun Trinidad said a Trump presidency highlighted trade protectionism that could be linked to support for strong onshore job creation.
“For the Philippines, we think a material risk from a Trump presidency may be US job protectionism, which could weigh on global outsourcing/offshoring activities from which the Philippines (and other emerging markets) benefit,” he said.
Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data, it was estimated that 70 per cent of BPO revenues were sourced from the US.
Property consulting company Colliers has estimated that the information technology/business process management industry generates US$168 billion (Bt5.9 trillion) in revenues in India and the Philippines.
“Not that existing US-based IT (information technology)/BPO firms operating in the country would be likely to leave abruptly under a Trump presidency, but ’prospective’ BPO business may diminish, already wary of (President Rodrigo) Duterte’s anti-US rhetoric and shift to a more independent foreign policy,” he said.
Trinidad estimated that the US election could put at risk $1 billion-$2 billion or about 0.4-0.7 per cent of Philippine gross domestic product in lost BPO business opportunities. 
This is seen translating to foregone consumption growth of roughly 0.8-1.7 per cent, precluding multiplier effects.
Discretionary spending items, such as those spent in restaurants and hotels, may be the first to fade away.
“Since BPO office requirements sparked the commercial office segment building boom, lost BPO opportunities may shade real investment gains as well. 
“Upbeat construction jobs, up recently by 655,000 (based on a July labour survey) due to strong investments, would be affected, reinforcing potential consumption weakness,” he said.