Japan’s leaders must envision the world 30 years ahead
What qualities should Japan’s leader have? In the last installment of a series of articles presenting the views of business leaders and academics, Yomiuri Shimbun Senior Writer Ryuichi Otsuka interviewed Prof. Koji Murata of Doshisha University. The following are excerpts from the interview.
The world is changing at an incredibly fast pace, and Japan’s leaders need to focus three decades ahead and consider policies from a medium- to long-term perspective because we are likely to experience “20 years of crisis” from around 2030 to 2050.
China is expected to surpass the United States in terms of gross domestic product around 2030. This will intensify the U.S.-China rivalry.
Around the same time, India will overtake China in population size, and China’s working-age populace will continue to decline. In the United States, the percentage of whites in the population is projected to drop below 50% around 2050.
Can China offset its population decline with tech? Can American society withstand such a transformation in its demographic composition?
The situation is so complex that it is impossible to forecast how the strife between the world’s two major powers will be resolved.
Against this background, what should Japan do?
During the Cold War, when the Soviet Union and the United States were locking horns, Japan experienced remarkable economic development while minimizing defense spending. However, Japan is now at the front line of the U.S.-China confrontation.
Japan’s options are limited. Being aware of the limits of its power, Japan places top priority on preserving its vitally important alliance with the United States. In its relationship with China, Japan maintains mutual economic cooperation and good communication, while mitigating potential hazards.
Japan’s leaders should attach special importance to two items.
First, Japan should take an active stance in making strategic proposals to the United States. Foreign policy in Washington now centers on China, and Japan is low on its list of priorities. This being the case, it is imperative that Japanese leaders take the initiative in launching strategic dialogue that has a larger framework.
The Abe administration’s vision for “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” received a favorable response in Washington. This can be a good precedent.
Second, Japanese leaders should recognize the wisdom of promoting multilateral diplomacy to supplement relations with the United States. Multilayered diplomacy involving European and Asian countries will be more necessary than ever. Leadership on this front is essential. Diplomacy “with a bird’s-eye view of the world,” which was put forth and pursued by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, should also be seen as a valuable precedent.
The Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, accidents at nuclear power plants, meteorological natural disasters and the novel coronavirus pandemic — all of these incidents that occurred one after another call into question the relationship between politics, science and technology.
The various responses to the coronavirus outbreak have revealed much about leadership qualities. Leaders must have the capacity to elicit opinions from a variety of experts and use those conclusions to make appropriate political judgments. In other words, it is accurate to refer to “expertise” as the ability to discern the knowledge and opinions of specialists.
Political leaders are superfluous if they merely pander to the majority view of experts. Conversely, ignoring expertise, like U.S. President Donald Trump does, leads to chaos.
Science and technology influence the fate of power games.
In the U.S.-China race for supremacy, the side that makes a breakthrough in technology may gain the upper hand all at once.
Natural resource-poor Japan has no option but to consider its future on the premise of a declining population in conjunction with science and technology as the keys to determining the nation’s fate. I call upon political leaders to recognize this.
I want to mention that another quality needed for Japan’s political leaders is to be highly sensitive to the human rights of minority groups and a diversity of values.
Changes in the ethnic composition of U.S. society are causing friction. Protests over discrimination against African Americans are on the rise.
This could also happen in Japan. It is projected that foreign nationals will account for 10% of Japan’s population by the middle of this century. An era will arrive in which it is necessary that we coexist with people from various cultural and religious backgrounds. Also, as happened in the United States, the rights of sexual minorities will garner more attention in Japan.
Protecting the human rights of minorities and being accepting of diverse values will prove beneficial to overcoming Japan’s population decline because such moves will make the country attractive to talented individuals while maintaining social and economic vitality.