K-Research retains projection of 2.6% GDP growth next year
Kasikorn Research Centre on Tuesday retained its projection of 2.6 per cent GDP growth for Thailand next year, despite the fresh outbreak of Covid-19. However, the projection is still considerably lower than the Bank of Thailand’s 2021 GDP growth forecast of 3.2 per cent.
The centre said the economic recovery would be slow and driven by government spending, with market instability to be expected. The pace at which economic activity revived and tourists returned would also depend on the Covid-19 situation, it said.
The centre noted that global vaccine supply was still not meeting demand, while the 26 million doses ordered by Thailand would only cover 13 million of its 69 million population.
Another factor affecting the economy was the baht rate. The centre projects the currency will strengthen throughout next year due to the weakening dollar. It sees a rate of Bt29-Bt29.25 per dollar by the end of 2021, hitting Thailand’s export competitiveness.
Kasikorn Research added that US President-elect Joe Biden’s policies and approach to China would also impact Thailand.
Meanwhile it said the Covid-19 situation in Thailand should be monitored closely since failure to contain the latest outbreak would have serious ramifications for the economy.
