Gold soars to $4,300 ATH as rate-cut bets and trade tensions fuel safe-haven demand
Gold surged past $4,300 an ounce for the first time, hitting a fourth straight record high as trade tensions, a US shutdown, and rate-cut bets fuel demand. Analysts say prices could near $5,000 if global risks deepen
Reuters reported that gold prices hit fresh all-time highs for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday (16 October), surging past US$4,300 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising US–China trade tensions and a US government shutdown. Expectations of interest rate cuts have been a key driver of the rally.
Spot gold jumped 2.6% to US$4,316.99 per ounce at 4:07 p.m. ET (20:07 GMT) after touching a record high of US$4,318.75 earlier. US gold futures for December delivery closed 2.5% higher at US$4,304.60, after reaching a record US$4,335 during the session.
Gold has risen by more than 60% since the start of the year, supported by geopolitical tensions, expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong central bank buying, de-dollarisation, and robust ETF inflows.
“Gold’s outlook will depend largely on the interest rate trajectory in 2026 and US–China relations. If no agreement is reached and tensions worsen, gold could break US$5,000 per ounce,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at OANDA’s MarketPulse.
Investors are closely watching the simmering trade dispute between the US and China. On Wednesday, Washington criticised China’s expanded rare-earth export controls, calling them a threat to global supply chains.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he had agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold another summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, a day before meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts — one in October and another in December — with probabilities of 98% and 95%, respectively. Lower interest rates typically boost non-yielding assets like gold.
HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to US$3,355 per ounce, citing rising safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, economic risks, and a weaker dollar.
Silver also climbed 1.8% to US$54.04 per ounce, touching a record high of US$54.15, while platinum rose 3.2% to US$1,706.65, and palladium jumped 4.6% to US$1,606.00.
