EXIM Thailand forecasts 0-2% export growth in 2026, vows to reinforce its export co-pilot role

Charat Rattanaboonniti, President of Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Thailand), revealed that 2025 marks another year in which Thai exports have returned to strong growth and continue to serve as a key engine of the Thai economy, with total exports expected to expand by no less than 10%. Nevertheless, structural challenges within Thailand’s export sector remain a pressing concern, particularly the imbalance between the “number of exporters” and “overall export value.”

While SME exporters account for nearly 80% of all exporters, they contribute only around 10% of total export value. In contrast, large corporates, representing around 20% of exporters, generate more than 90% of total export value.

A review of the financial system further reflects this structural imbalance. Large enterprises receive nearly 70% of total business loans, while SMEs account for only 30%, a share that has been declining amid rising risk perceptions.

Over the past five years, business loans in the system have expanded by an average of only 0.3% annually, significantly lower than average GDP growth of 2.1%. Looking ahead to 2026, EXIM Thailand forecasts Thai export growth of approximately 0-2%, constrained by global trade tensions, border disputes, exchange rate volatility, and a high comparison base following export front-loading in 2025.

EXIM Thailand President said that, as a specialized financial institution under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance, EXIM Thailand remains committed to serving as a key mechanism in driving the Thai economy.

The Bank will support entrepreneurs in adapting to change, strengthening competitiveness, and building a solid foundation for long-term growth through four strategic approaches.

1. Stimulating exports by enabling Thai exporters, particularly SMEs, to expand confidently into new markets through business matching, and alliances in both public and private sectors. Key initiatives include EXIM Export Booster scheme for entrepreneurs affected by trade wars, U.S. reciprocal tariffs, and geopolitical risks, as well as EXIM Safe Trade Credit scheme, export credit bundled with insurance, to enhance risk management and confidence in market expansion.

2. Resolving debt constraints through debt restructuring measures and the management of non-performing but viable loans, helping affected businesses recover, regain stability, and settle obligations more efficiently.

3. Enhancing liquidity via EXIM Loan for Employment, Phase 3, in cooperation with the Social Security Office, to help enterprises maintain employment. This also covers relief and rehabilitation measures for entrepreneurs impacted by crises such as flooding in southern Thailand and border disputes.

4. Investing for the future by supporting financing that drives sustainable outcomes, including Sustainability-Linked Loans and Green X Transformation schemes, to strengthen the capacity of Thai businesses to grow along the green economy pathway and upgrade production toward advanced technologies.

Charat added that EXIM Thailand has established a dedicated task force to further expand support for Thai exporters and the business sector, encompassing relief and rehabilitation for entrepreneurs affected by the recent flooding in southern Thailand, as well as preparations for future crises.

The Bank is committed to fulfilling its role as an Export Co-pilot, standing alongside entrepreneurs as a trusted business partner to help Thai companies penetrate the New Frontiers, increase export value, and enhance competitiveness across the entire supply chain, supported by comprehensive financial solutions and risk management tools for all circumstances.

“EXIM Thailand is ready to move forward in close collaboration with the public sector and entrepreneurs across all industries, serving as an Export Co-pilot to support Thai businesses in expanding into global markets and driving the economy in a holistic manner. Our priority is to help reduce current business costs, open up future market opportunities, and lay the foundation for a sustainable economy,” Charat concluded.