Energy expert warns Thailand faces diesel shortage within two months

Panurach Dumrongthai, a global energy and drilling expert, posted on Facebook expressing serious concern over Thailand’s energy security situation after attending the first Meet the Press event at Government House on March 28, 2026, as a representative of the energy sector.

He said the volume of crude oil with “confirmed delivery” for April and May was 27 million barrels below actual demand, and called on the government to immediately consider issuing measures to limit diesel use to what is strictly necessary.

Panurach said that at the Meet the Press forum he directly raised three main issues with Auttapol Rerkpiboon, Minister of Energy: 1) plans to secure replacement crude supplies for the missing volume, 2) how Thailand would handle crude quality, particularly API gravity, if it did not match the refining process of Thai refineries, and 3) his proposal to set up a Special Task Force in four areas, comprising petroleum engineers, refinery experts, oil distribution experts and maritime logistics experts.

Auttapol said the figure of 9 million barrels for May referred only to tankers with confirmed berthing dates, and that more confirmed volumes would continue to be added.

Of the 500,000-barrel quota from the Middle East, he said half could still be loaded via Fujairah, which is already beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and sent through a pipeline out to the Red Sea from Saudi Arabia.

The other half that had been lost, he said, could be replaced by supplies from the United States, South Africa and Malaysia, by suspending exports and redirecting those quotas for domestic use.

On crude quality, the minister acknowledged that the specifications might not match exactly, but said Thai refineries could technically adjust the production process through blending.

He added that jet fuel production, where demand had fallen, could also be reduced so that refining capacity could be shifted to increase diesel yield by another 8-10% to offset the shortfall.

Panurach said he felt deeply alarmed after seeing the figures.

The picture now, he said, was that Thailand was effectively waiting day by day for crude oil to arrive for refining.

He said Thailand normally uses 1 million barrels of crude oil per day to refine about 70 million litres of diesel and 35 million litres of petrol, meaning the country needs 30 million barrels of crude a month to meet demand.

But based on the confirmed shipping table disclosed by the government, only 24 million barrels had been confirmed for April, while May was even more alarming, with only 9 million barrels confirmed against a requirement of 30 million.

If ships could not be secured to fill the monthly total, he said, Thailand would have to keep drawing on national crude reserves to stay afloat.

He said the government’s order to speed up B20 production and adjust refinery formulas to squeeze out as much diesel yield as possible was a warning sign that Thailand was in urgent need of diesel compared with the amount of crude available.

Combined with a tense global situation, he noted that the port of Fujairah in the Middle East had just been attacked and Red Sea shipping routes could be closed at any time, raising the question of whether people should really be told not to worry.

He added that the prime minister’s appeal for each household to save one litre of fuel a day to put 10 million litres of diesel back into reserves was well intentioned, but from an engineering perspective, he believed the crisis had reached a level at which the government should already be considering an announcement to restrict diesel use to essential purposes only.