Diesel price cap under review as Oil Fund turns positive

Thailand may be preparing to end the long-running policy of capping diesel prices at no more than 30 baht a litre, as the Oil Fuel Fund Office plans to submit a revised national fuel-crisis framework to the incoming government for review.

The Oil Fuel Fund Office (OFFO) said it is preparing a new Fuel Crisis Management Plan (2025–2029) for consideration by the next government, as the existing plan is nearing the end of its term. The new plan will reassess whether the measure to keep retail diesel prices at no more than 30 baht per litre remains appropriate under current conditions.

It will also consider setting a new diesel price framework, taking into account impacts on the public, the broader economy and inflation. A review of the price cap on LPG is also expected.

Fuel Fund returns to surplus for first time in four years

The Oil Fuel Fund Office (OFFO) reported that as of February 1, 2026, the overall status of the oil fund had returned to a surplus of 505 million baht, compared with a deficit of 428 million baht a week earlier on January 25, 2026.

This marks the fund’s first return to positive territory in four years. The fund first moved into deficit on December 12, 2021, at -1.633 billion baht, and remained in the red thereafter, worsening continuously until it reached a record low on November 27, 2022 at -132.671 billion baht. The deficit was driven largely by government policy to subsidise diesel prices through the fund, keeping pump prices below true costs over an extended period.

As of February 1, 2026, the oil account showed a surplus of 39.046 billion baht, while the LPG account remained in deficit at 38.541 billion baht. This resulted in an overall surplus of 505 million baht, with total outstanding liabilities of 61.543 billion baht.

Current levy and subsidy structure

On February 2, 2026, the pricing structure included the following contributions to the fund:

• Diesel users paid 0.20 baht per litre into the fund.
• Gasohol 91 and Gasohol 95 contributed 2.50 baht per litre.
• Gasohol E20 contributed 0.80 baht per litre.
• Unleaded petrol (octane 95) contributed 9.60 baht per litre.
• For LPG, the fund still paid a subsidy of 0.22 baht per kilogramme.

Review of the diesel cap and LPG support

Following the fund’s improved position, Thansettakij contacted a source at the Energy Ministry about the possibility of letting fuel prices move more freely with the market. The source said the previous fuel-crisis plan for 2020–2024 set a framework to keep diesel retail prices below 30 baht per litre.

In addition, the current policy caps household LPG at 423 baht per 15-kilogramme cylinder, supported by oil fund money. As a result, the source said it is not yet possible to allow fuel prices to fully follow market mechanisms, and the existing framework remains in place for now.

However, the OFFO is now drafting a new fuel-crisis plan for 2025–2029 because the earlier plan has reached its five-year review point. The new plan will focus on the appropriateness of using oil fund resources to provide support during periods of energy price shocks.

The plan will first need to define what situations qualify as an “energy crisis” and determine the appropriate level of support. Under the current criteria, a crisis is deemed to occur when global oil prices rise by more than US$5 per week and domestic retail prices increase by more than 1 baht per week, allowing the fund to intervene to stabilise prices.

“Diesel is currently capped at no more than 30 baht per litre,” the source said. “The new plan must revisit whether this level is still appropriate given today’s global conditions, and if adjustments are needed, what level should be set so it aligns with appropriate use of oil fund support.”

Any new diesel price framework would be developed through multiple scenarios, considering pros and cons and the potential impact on public sentiment, economic conditions and inflation. Officials noted that consumers often perceive diesel as expensive once it rises above 30 baht per litre, although during the last energy price shock the government allowed diesel prices to rise as high as 35 baht per litre. A new framework would therefore be set based on a range of factors.

The plan is also expected to review whether the LPG price should remain capped at 423 baht per 15kg cylinder, and whether support should be targeted at households only, or continue across all user groups as it does now. The aim is to determine which approach best fits current conditions and the fund’s financial position.

Any changes under the new fuel-crisis plan will ultimately depend on the incoming government’s judgement, the office said.