Energy regulator weighs 3 options for May-August electricity bills

Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has proposed three possible electricity tariff rates for the May-August 2026 billing cycle, ranging from Bt3.95 to Bt4.59 per unit, as rising global gas and LNG prices continue to put pressure on power costs.

Poonpat Leesombatpaiboon, secretary-general of the Office of the Energy Regulatory Commission and spokesman for the ERC, said the regulator’s meeting No. 10/2026, held on Monday, March 16, 2026, resolved to open a public hearing on the Fuel Adjustment Charge (at the given time) or Ft, for the next billing period.

Although fuel costs, particularly global natural gas and LNG prices, have risen in line with the international energy situation, together with exchange-rate volatility, the ERC said it still has mechanisms to help cushion the impact on consumers.

These include the possible use of clawback funds and the gradual management of accumulated cost burdens, allowing the regulator to strike a balance between reflecting actual costs and keeping electricity bills at an appropriate level, while also preserving the financial stability of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) and PTT Plc, as well as overall energy security.

The ERC said it had been gradually repaying EGAT and PTT for past fuel cost burdens. During the September-December 2025 period, the regulator approved the use of Bt2.64 billion in excess electricity revenue to help reduce electricity charges, and also approved repayment of accumulated gas-related costs over six instalments, with the second instalment beginning in September-December 2025.

As a result, by the end of December 2025, the outstanding accumulated cost burden had fallen to Bt35.928 billion, while the outstanding natural gas cost burden borne by state enterprises had been reduced to about Bt10.3 billion.

Despite that improvement, the ERC said the remaining burden would continue to weigh on the Ft until the outstanding fuel costs previously absorbed by EGAT and PTT on behalf of electricity users are fully repaid.

The regulator said the March 16 meeting considered the tariff proposal under Sections 65 and 67 of the Energy Industry Act of 2007, which require tariffs to be set according to clear procedures and public consultation. Under the law, EGAT, as the licensee, must submit its proposed rates for the ERC’s approval.

For the May-August 2026 period, the ERC has outlined three cases:

Case 1: Full formula calculation, including full repayment of EGAT’s accumulated costs
Under this option, the retail Ft would be set at 80.60 satang per unit. This would reflect a projected fuel cost increase of 29.66 satang per unit for May-August 2026, plus 50.94 satang per unit to repay EGAT’s accumulated cost burden of Bt35.928 billion in full.

Under this approach, EGAT would recover all the fuel and power purchase costs it had absorbed on behalf of the public during the previous energy crisis by April 2026, allowing it to repay loans taken out to support liquidity and restore its financial position more quickly. Combined with the base tariff of Bt3.78 per unit, the average electricity rate, excluding VAT, would rise to Bt4.59 per unit.

That would represent an 18% increase from the current rate of Bt3.88 per unit. The ERC noted that this estimate does not yet include the projected third instalment of AFGas adjustments for May-August 2026, worth Bt2.58 billion, or about 3.66 satang per unit.

Case 2: Regular FAC cost only, based on EGAT’s proposal

Under this case, the retail Ft would be 29.66 satang per unit, reflecting only the projected cost trend for May-August 2026. EGAT would continue to absorb the entire outstanding accumulated cost burden of Bt35.928 billion, equivalent to 50.94 satang per unit, on behalf of consumers.

Added to the base tariff of Bt3.78 per unit, this would bring the average electricity rate, excluding VAT, to Bt4.08 per unit. That would mark a 5% increase from the current rate of Bt3.88 per unit.

Case 3: Regular FAC cost plus use of clawback funds to ease the burden on consumers
Under the third option, the retail Ft would be 16.23 satang per unit. This would still reflect the projected fuel cost trend of 29.66 satang per unit for the period, but the ERC would also deploy all available clawback funds, amounting to about Bt9.472 billion, or 13.43 satang per unit, to help reduce the burden on consumers during the global energy crisis linked to unrest in the Middle East.

In this scenario, EGAT would still continue to carry the accumulated cost burden of Bt35.928 billion, equivalent to 50.94 satang per unit, on behalf of the public. Combined with the base tariff of Bt3.78 per unit, the average electricity rate, excluding VAT, would rise to Bt3.95 per unit.

That would represent a 2% increase from the current rate of Bt3.88 per unit.

The ERC said the three options are intended to reflect the real cost of electricity generation while giving stakeholders and consumers a chance to weigh in on how much of the burden should be passed on immediately and how much should continue to be carried by state agencies.