2017 charter forecast to be preserved despite referendum

The 2017 Constitution is expected to remain intact, as the junta-drafted supreme law is likely to be backed by the growing nationalist sentiment over the border issue with Cambodia, according to experts.

With the referendum asking whether people agree to draft a new charter and how the process should proceed already set, analysts predict that most voters will reject the proposal.

Purawich Watanasukh, a political scientist at Thammasat University, told The Nation that public attention will likely shift away from the charter issue toward the other referendum on whether to revoke two agreements with Cambodia.

According to the government’s policy statement, voters will cast ballots for constituency MPs, party-list MPs, a referendum on rewriting the 2017 Constitution, and another referendum on revoking the 2000 and 2001 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) in the next general election, expected no later than early April.

The first MoU concerns the survey and demarcation of the land boundary, while the second deals with the 26,000-square-kilometre overlapping maritime area in the Gulf of Thailand and energy cooperation.

Purawich said Thai people are likely to be “distracted” by the border disputes with Cambodia, causing the constitutional issue to be overshadowed by nationalist sentiment.

“Just say the word Cambodia, and people will likely vote against [the MoUs]. And what about the constitutional amendment? Who cares? That’s a technical issue,” he said.

Patriotism has surged among Thais since the May 28 border skirmish, which led to protests and unrest in border areas. A recent poll by the National Institute of Development Administration showed most respondents had “lost patience” with the Thai-Cambodian dispute.

Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, described the upcoming referendum as “one upon emptiness.”

He explained that Thai society would be dominated by nationalism when the polls take place, so people “might not be ready” to decide on vital matters like charter rewriting.

Two bills on the constitutional referendum, featuring details of the constitution-drafting assembly, are currently being vetted after passing their first House reading on September 15.

Coup legacy preserved through 2017 Constitution

Observers see the 2017 charter as a means to preserve the legacy of the 2014 coup makers, now represented by the conservative bloc led by the Bhumjaithai Party. Many who supported the coup are now part of the royalist-nationalist group United Power of the Land to Protect Sovereignty, which opposes Phnom Penh.

Purawich said conservatives would seek to rally nationalist support to justify keeping the 2017 Constitution.

“Just a few people want constitutional reform,” he said, adding that conservatives often portray the 2017 charter as “anti-corruption,” arguing there is no need to revoke it.

The junta-drafted Constitution was branded the “anti-corruption charter,” an idea once used to justify the 2014 coup against Yingluck Shinawatra’s government.

Yuttaporn said the referendums will likely be “dominated by a single group of ideas,” as strong nationalism discourages dissenting opinions.

Both academics said the 2017 Constitution lies at the root of Thailand’s ongoing political crisis due to its undemocratic mechanisms.

One example, they said, is how unelected bodies like the Constitutional Court wield power to intervene in politics, such as in the removals of former prime ministers Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

Some observers also noted the junta-appointed Senate’s role in blocking Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of the now-defunct Move Forward Party, from becoming prime minister, as well as in selecting members of independent agencies such as the Constitutional Court.

Unjust referendum process

The 2017 Constitution itself was approved through a referendum, though the process was widely criticised as unjust due to legal actions against campaigners who opposed it.

According to the Election Commission (EC), 16 million people voted in favour of the charter, while 10 million opposed it in the August 2016 referendum.

The Internet Law Reform Dialogue reported that public activities criticising the draft charter were blocked by the military government, with more than 200 people facing legal action for their opposition.

Both Purawich and Yuttaporn said referendums could be used as “tools of control” and to legitimise junta rule.

Bhumjaithai committed to constitutional redrafting

The ruling Bhumjaithai Party has insisted it is committed to amending the 2017 Constitution.

PM’s Office Minister and Bhumjaithai deputy leader Paradon Prissananantakul said on Wednesday that he hopes the constitutional rewriting bill will pass its third House reading by year’s end.

“The goal is to allow the Election Commission to conduct the referendum alongside the general election,” Paradon said.

Constitutional reform is also part of the agreement between the People’s Party and Bhumjaithai in forming the current minority interim government.