TDRI questions Pheu Thai ‘nine new millionaires’ policy filing

The Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) said its analysis of campaign policies from five major political parties found proposed annual spending of roughly 150–740 billion baht, with the average still not exceeding Thailand’s five-year average annual investment budget (about 760 billion baht).

TDRI said the party proposing the highest spending was the People’s Party, followed by the Democrat Party, the Kla Tham Party, Pheu Thai, and Bhumjaithai, respectively. In terms of funding, TDRI said most parties relied on routine budget management, tax reform and cutting unnecessary spending.

However, the researchers cautioned that actual costs could be higher than parties estimate due to implementation complexity and the likelihood of coalition governments, which may combine and push multiple parties’ policies at once.

Party-by-party highlights and concerns

People’s Party: TDRI said the party’s platform focuses on building a welfare state, with average spending estimated at 740 billion baht a year, emphasising welfare and infrastructure to improve quality of life. TDRI noted that policies such as raising elderly allowances and large quality-of-life projects could carry long-term fiscal burdens, and suggested some programmes may be under-costed.

Pheu Thai: TDRI estimated the party’s policy cost at about 240 billion baht a year, with major spending concentrated on debt measures and programmes such as “Kon Thai Rai Jon” and a farm debt moratorium. TDRI said some proposals may be appropriate, such as establishing a credit guarantee institution to help SMEs access financing, and policies to tackle narcotics and scam networks.

But TDRI flagged concerns over the “nine new millionaires a day” proposal — a policy designed to attract more taxpayers through daily lottery-style prizes worth 9 million baht — saying it would not sustainably raise incomes and would require tax revenue to fund it. TDRI also said it did not find the proposal in the documents Pheu Thai submitted to the Election Commission, despite an estimated cost of about 3.2 billion baht per year.

TDRI also urged a review of proposals such as guaranteeing a 30% profit margin for agricultural products, warning this could create distorted incentives in agricultural markets.

Bhumjaithai: TDRI estimated proposed spending at about 148 billion baht a year, describing a focus on volunteer-based policies and short-term measures, including expanded elderly care and changes to military structures. TDRI supported ideas such as appointing “professional” ministers and volunteer nurses to help care for elderly people locally, but urged reconsideration of proposals such as hiring 100,000 volunteer soldiers and capping electricity at 3 baht per unit, citing potentially heavy fiscal costs.

Kla Tham: TDRI said the party proposes multiple policies with high local-level spending and price interventions, highlighting waste-to-energy projects as potentially beneficial, while warning that some income guarantees and low-interest credit proposals may encourage excessive risk-taking or fail to address debt at its root.

Democrat Party: TDRI estimated proposed spending at more than 520 billion baht a year, combining legacy policies with new mega projects. It supported proposals to repeal unnecessary laws to reduce corruption and to provide immediate compensation to farmers after natural disasters, while cautioning that crop income guarantees could drive overproduction and that electricity policies could create high fiscal burdens.

Recommendations to the Election Commission

TDRI said parties should clearly explain how costs are calculated and where funding will come from. It recommended that the Election Commission of Thailand require political parties to submit complete, sufficiently detailed information — including budget calculations and funding sources — at least 30 days before the election to enable meaningful public scrutiny and debate.