Thaksin’s next move: family retreat or politics from behind the curtain?

It is a moment of celebration for the Shinawatra family after Thaksin Shinawatra received a royal pardon on the auspicious occasion of the royal ceremony marking the fourth cycle birthday anniversary of Her Majesty Queen Suthida, changing his status from parolee to fully released convict.

With former prime minister Thaksin now fully released, all remaining legal restrictions on him have been lifted, allowing him to travel overseas freely.

As soon as the “big boss” became a free man, reports emerged that Thaksin would travel to rest at his residence in Dubai. This year, there will reportedly be no open-house event at Chan Song La to mark Thaksin’s 77th birthday on July 26, 2026.

Yodchanan Wongsawat, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, along with several other Pheu Thai Party figures, have said in unison that after his full release, former prime minister Thaksin will not become involved with Pheu Thai.

However, whatever his status, Thaksin — and especially the Shinawatra family — is still widely seen as the real owner of the Pheu Thai Party.

Although Pheu Thai is no longer the lead party in government, it remains a key variable. With 74 MPs in hand, it is still important to the survival of the Anutin 2 government.

Pheu Thai is currently at a disadvantage to the Bhumjaithai Party, both in popularity and in the protection offered by special power, or the so-called deep state. Thaksin is therefore likely to choose a strategy of retreat.

At a time when the “blue regime”, overseen by the elite, remains strong, the big boss is more likely to take on the role of a behind-the-scenes strategist, or a “shadow chairman of advisers”, rather than openly returning to the political arena as he did during the Srettha and Paetongtarn governments.

As for the idea that Thaksin will withdraw completely to look after his grandchildren, that seems unlikely. The big boss still wants to groom Yodchanan to return as party leader in the future.

If the situation changes in the days ahead and political history repeats itself with the decline of the “Newin regime”, a familiar image of Thaksin may be seen once again.

If former prime minister Thaksin travels to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates for a break, it would hardly be surprising. During his 17 years living abroad, Dubai served as his home, political base and business stronghold.

When Yingluck Shinawatra fled the country on August 23, 2017, she went to stay with her elder brother, Thaksin, in Dubai, where she remains to this day.

Thaksin stayed at mansion No. E46, on the 10th side street off the main road in Emirates Hills, an upscale residential development named after Beverly Hills. The area where Thaksin lives is known as Sector E, in Emirates Hills Project 2.

In early 2021, when the Clubhouse application began gaining popularity in Thailand, Thaksin appeared under the name “Tony Woodsome” on Care Talk x Care Clubhouse, a strategy by the real owner of the party to rebrand Pheu Thai.

At that time, every move by Tony Woodsome on new media drew nationwide attention. Both supporters and critics waited to hear what he would say.

In late October 2022, Thaksin Shinawatra allowed FAROSE, owner of the YouTube channel Klai Ban, to tour his residence in Dubai and hold an informal conversation with him in the study where Care Talk x Care Clubhouse was regularly filmed.

If Thaksin Shinawatra chooses to stay in Dubai for an extended period, Pheu Thai fans would likely want to see Tony Woodsome return once again.