Thai hotels see 33m foreign arrivals; Q1 room rate rises limited

The “Accommodation Business Confidence Index” for December 2025, compiled by the Thai Hotels Association (THA) and the Bank of Thailand, surveyed operators between Dec 15–31, 2025, and received responses from 107 establishments. The survey found that around half of hotel businesses expect the overall number of foreign tourists in 2026 to be close to 2025 levels—about 33 million people—below the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) target of 36.7 million, which would represent an 11% increase from last year.

On hotel revenue, the survey said revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was higher than the previous quarter, partly due to an increase in long-haul tourists and the impact of the domestic stimulus measures Tiew Thai Kon La Khrueng and Tiew Dee Mee Kuen, which helped support revenue to some extent—particularly among four-star and above hotels. Overall, however, revenue in the second half of 2025 tended to decline compared with the previous year.

Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, THA president, said the confidence index survey also indicated that in the first quarter of 2026, foreign guest numbers are likely to fall compared with the same period a year earlier, mainly due to the Chinese market, while long-haul markets are still expected to expand.

Even so, overall tourist numbers show signs of improvement from the fourth quarter of 2025 across all customer segments (Chinese, short-haul and long-haul). Hotels expecting an increase in foreign guests in the first quarter of 2026 are largely four-star and above properties, enabling that group to raise prices more than hotels rated three-star and below.

“In the first quarter this year, more than half of hotel businesses assess that Chinese customers are likely to decline compared with the same period in 2025, and they are the segment with the biggest drop versus other groups. However, long-haul customers are still expected to expand—particularly for four-star and above hotels and hotels in the South,” Thienprasit said.

Room rates: difficult to raise in Q1

On average daily room rates in the first quarter of 2026, the survey found that most hotels can raise room prices only in a limited way. Among four-star and above hotels, more than 34% plan to set room rates close to current levels, while 35% can raise room rates—but mostly by 3–5%. Only 4% of hotels said they can raise rates by 6–10%.

Among three-star and below hotels, more than 43% expect room rates to decline, with around one in five estimating a drop of at least 10% compared with the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, 32% expect to keep room rates close to current levels.

Occupancy: January 2026 seen at 74%

Average occupancy in January 2026 is projected at 74%, down from 76% in December 2025. December occupancy was unchanged from the previous month and from the same period a year earlier. By region, December 2025 occupancy rates were broadly similar: the Central region recorded 80% (up from 78% in November), the South 79% (down from 82%), the North 78% (up from 60%), and the East 76% (slightly up from 75%).

“Average occupancy in December 2025 was stable mainly because of four-star and above hotels, while three-star and below hotels declined. By region, it was stable from the previous month in many areas, except the North, which improved—partly due to more events, larger-scale events and stronger publicity,” the survey said.

2026 tourism: upbeat New Year, but challenges remain

Thienprasit added that tourism over the New Year holiday period was lively, supported by “Countdown 2026” events in multiple locations, including Amazing Thailand Countdown 2026, helping to push the overall tourism outlook in a more positive direction for both domestic and international markets.

However, challenges remain, including tougher competition that requires faster destination development to keep pace with rivals, the need for more comprehensive services, and shifts in tourist behaviour that require operators to adapt to changing needs.

He also pointed to the increase in the social security contribution ceiling, which took effect on Jan 1, 2026, highlighting the rising cost pressures faced by hotel operators—especially small hotels in upcountry provinces. These pressures stem from higher costs following adjustments to wage bases that lift social security contributions, alongside the increased minimum wage.

THA urges policies, including managing the baht

The Thai Hotels Association said it hopes the government will maintain continuity in tourism policies and measures in 2026, focusing on four main areas: restoring confidence, public relations, marketing, and organising activities and events. It also called for attracting quality tourist markets by upgrading experience-based tourism, raising awareness of sustainable tourism, and promoting health tourism, which it said will be important to drive growth in tourism and hotels.

As for assistance measures sought by hotel operators, most want support across five main areas:

1. Tourism and income stimulus measures: boost publicity and tourism promotion in both major and secondary cities; promote meetings and seminars by state agencies; ease entry travel and keep air ticket prices at an appropriate level; attract new foreign online travel agency (OTA) platforms; extend domestic purchasing-stimulus schemes; and address Thailand’s negative image in practical ways, including safety and political stability.
2. Cost support measures: reduce energy costs and labour expenses, and provide tax relief such as corporate income tax, personal income tax and property tax.
3. Financial measures: introduce low-interest loans for hotel renovations—especially for hotels affected by unrest along the Thai–Cambodian border—along with measures to manage the baht at an appropriate level.
4. Labour measures: make it easier to submit training documents to develop workforce skills, and improve the stability of the migrant worker registration system.
5. Other measures: develop infrastructure more broadly, especially transport infrastructure, to address traffic congestion and reduce constraints on business competitiveness.