Thai hotels expect weaker second-half revenues in 2025, foreign arrivals seen rising only modestly to 33 million in 2026
A Thai Hotels Association-Bank of Thailand survey finds most hotel operators expect 2026 foreign arrivals to be similar to 2025 at about 33 million, while many see second-half 2025 revenues declining.
A hotel operator confidence index for November 2025, compiled by the Thai Hotels Association (THA) and the Bank of Thailand, found that around 54% of respondents expect total foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 to be close to 2025 levels, at about 33 million. The survey was conducted from November 13-30 and drew responses from 83 establishments.
Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, President of the THA, said nearly one in four hotel operators expect foreign arrivals to rise if the government rolls out measures and promotions to support tourism, while 22% expect arrivals to fall.
He said a poor image, higher travel costs in Thailand compared with competitors, economic uncertainty in source markets, and insufficient development of Thai destinations remain key factors weighing on travel decisions.
Revenues seen softer in the second half of 2025
While revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was higher than the previous quarter—particularly for hotels in the South, partly due to more long-haul visitors such as Europeans—operators said government measures, including “Half-Half Thailand Travel” and the “Tiew Dee Mee Kuen” scheme, lifted revenues only slightly, by around 3% compared with a year earlier when no such measures were in place.
“However, overall, most hotel businesses assess that revenue in the second half of 2025 is likely to decline compared with the previous year,” he said.
Occupancy improves, South leads
Average hotel occupancy in November 2025 stood at 76%, up from the previous month and from a year earlier. Occupancy for December 2025 is forecast at 77%.
By hotel category, four-star and above properties recorded average occupancy of 78% in November, while hotels rated three-star and below averaged 68%.
Regionally, the South posted the highest average occupancy in November at 82% (up from 67% in October), followed by the Central region at 78% (up from 64%), the East at 75% (up from 64%), and the North at 60% (up from 51%).
Labour shortages and calls for government support
In November, the overall share of hotels reporting labour shortages was steady from the previous month, but shortages increased in the Central and Southern regions, mainly affecting service quality.
Thienprasit said most operators want government support in five areas:
- Tourism stimulus measures for both major and secondary cities to attract Thai and foreign visitors.
- Cost relief, including lower energy costs and tax incentives.
- Financial measures, including low-interest “soft loans” for hotel renovations, particularly for properties affected by unrest along the Thai–Cambodian border and flooding in the South.
- Labour measures, including a more stable foreign worker registration system.
- Other measures, including infrastructure upgrades—especially airports—to improve travel convenience, and streamlined procedures for operations and licensing.
The THA said it expects Thailand’s tourism sector to move in a more positive direction during the high season, supported by the long holiday period and ongoing efforts to stimulate long-haul markets. It added that measures encouraging domestic travel, airline capacity increases, and year-end celebrations should help attract both Thai and international tourists and generate wider economic activity.
