Venezuela’s mountain of debt back in focus after Maduro ouster

The ousting of President Nicolás Maduro has not only shaken Venezuela’s political landscape, but has also put the spotlight back on the country’s “giant debt crisis” — a problem that has been effectively frozen for almost eight years amid trillions of baht in external obligations and fresh hopes of a power shift.

The fall of Maduro has renewed attention on what is widely regarded as one of the world’s largest unresolved sovereign defaults. According to reports, Venezuela defaulted in late 2017 after years of economic turmoil and US sanctions that cut the country off from international capital markets. The default covered both sovereign bonds and bonds issued by state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). 

Since then, overdue interest has continued to accumulate. At the same time, legal claims linked to past asset seizures have added to the burden, pushing unpaid liabilities far above the face value of the original bonds.

Venezuelan distressed debt has also rebounded after Donald Trump took office as US president in January 2025, as investors and distressed-debt traders began betting that political change could emerge in the country.

Analysts estimate Venezuela has defaulted bonds outstanding of about US$60 billion (roughly 1.8 trillion baht). However, if PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans and international arbitration awards are included, total external debt is estimated at around US$150 billion to US$170 billion (roughly 4.7–5.3 trillion baht). 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates Venezuela’s nominal GDP in 2025 at about US$82.8 billion, implying a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 180–200%. 

One PDVSA bond series that was originally due in 2020 was secured by a majority stake in Citgo, the US refiner indirectly owned by PDVSA. Citgo has become a key target as creditors pursue court processes to recover funds. 

Long-running sanctions — including restrictions on trading Venezuelan debt — have also made it difficult to identify who holds many of the bonds. Among the biggest commercial creditors are believed to be overseas bondholders and specialist distressed-debt investors often described as “vulture funds”. 

Venezuela’s creditor list also includes companies that won compensation through international arbitration over past expropriations. US courts have recognised multi-billion-dollar awards involving firms such as ConocoPhillips and Crystallex, turning those claims into formal liabilities and opening routes for creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets. 

Beyond commercial creditors, Venezuela also owes bilateral lenders — primarily China and Russia — which extended loans under both Maduro and former president Hugo Chávez. Even so, the true scale of the debt remains difficult to verify precisely, as Venezuela has not published full external debt statistics for years. 

Venezuela’s economy contracted sharply after 2013 as oil output plunged, inflation surged and poverty rose. Although production later stabilised somewhat, low global oil prices and discounts on Venezuelan crude have limited revenue growth, leaving little room to service debts without a major restructuring. Recent US action against sanctioned oil tankers has further strained the situation. 

Trump has said US oil companies are ready to take on the difficult task of investing to restore Venezuela’s oil production, though details and timelines remain unclear. At present, Chevron is the only major US oil company still operating in Venezuela’s oilfields.