Oil surges toward $100 as Iran war disrupts supply

Crude oil prices surged towards $100 per barrel as the escalating conflict involving Iran triggered major disruptions to global fuel supplies.

CNBC reported that US crude prices on Friday (March 6, 2026) recorded their biggest weekly gain in the history of the futures market, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East caused significant turmoil in global energy supply.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 12.21%, or $9.89, to close at $90.90 per barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 8.52%, or $7.28, to settle at $92.69 per barrel.

US crude prices surged 35.63% over the week — the largest weekly gain in the history of futures trading since 1983. Brent crude rose around 28%, marking its biggest weekly increase since April 2020.

US President Donald Trump called on Iran to surrender unconditionally on Friday, raising fears of a prolonged war that could severely damage global oil and gas markets. The conflict has already brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy transport routes — close to a halt.

Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi told the Financial Times on Friday that oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel in the coming weeks if tankers are unable to pass through the strait.

Al-Kaabi warned that such a scenario could “collapse the global economy”.

“We expect everyone who has not yet declared force majeure to do so in the coming days if this situation continues,” Al-Kaabi told the Financial Times. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to declare force majeure. If they do not, they will ultimately face legal liability, and that is their choice.”

On Friday, the Trump administration announced a $20 billion insurance programme for oil tankers operating in the Persian Gulf, although the measure has done little to calm the crude oil market.

Iraq has already shut down production of 1.5 million barrels per day, two Iraqi officials told Reuters earlier this week. Kuwait has also begun cutting production after storage facilities filled up, sources familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal on Friday.

“The market is shifting from purely assessing geopolitical risk to dealing with tangible operational disruptions,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities research, said in a note to clients on Friday.

Kaneva added that supply losses could approach six million barrels per day by the end of next week if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. JPMorgan expects the United Arab Emirates to begin showing signs of supply constraints in the coming week.

The average price of regular petrol in the United States rose nearly 27 cents over the past week to $3.25 per gallon, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

The war between Iran and the United States entered its seventh day on Friday. At a press briefing on Thursday, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States had “only just begun the fight”.

“Iran hopes we cannot sustain a prolonged campaign. That is a serious miscalculation,” he told reporters.

Bloomberg also reported that one week after one of the biggest disruptions in global energy markets, oil prices remain well below levels seen in past crises. However, energy executives and traders are increasingly warning that each day the conflict continues brings the world closer to a major supply crisis, with many expecting crude prices to reach $100 within days.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely disrupted, turning what had previously been seen as a worst-case scenario for energy markets into reality. The number of empty supertankers available in the Persian Gulf is declining, accelerating the need for further production cuts.

Although oil and gas prices have surged this week, they remain below the peaks seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, there were signs on Friday that the initial calm in oil markets was fading as Brent crude climbed above $90 per barrel, bringing its weekly gain to more than a quarter.

Executives from four major trading companies, speaking anonymously, said markets remain overly complacent about the potential impact of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They warned that oil prices could reach $100 within days unless the conflict is de-escalated.

Signs of strain are already appearing in the physical energy market. Refinery cuts in the Middle East and Asia have pushed up prices for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, said markets are beginning to adjust to the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for an extended period.

“We expect Brent crude to reach $100 per barrel or higher within the next few days or weeks, once markets recognise that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to last weeks rather than being a temporary disruption,” he said.