Yingluck can't avoid the tough issues forever

2011 was quite forgiving when it came to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who virtually walked through a political minefield in a blindfold. Most analysts believe that 2012 will treat her differently although they are unsure whether she will, or should, change her approach.  She did it her way last year and she survived, for better or worse. Even though this year represents a bigger test, Yingluck’s unorthodox style may still suit it. The only problem, however, is that this is not just about her survival.

To some, she may be a naive nominee of Thaksin Shinawatra. To others, she may be someone whose “innocence” was a mere pretence that is “part of the plan”. Truth is, whatever lay beneath the appearance, it worked last year. It got her through the devastating flood crisis and political storms related to government efforts to help her big brother. The alleged drop in her popularity is a myth, because if we ask any pro-Pheu Thai voter to pick the most favourite politician, she is still the first name on the list.

So, the question is simple: Should Yingluck’s seemingly effective facade change this year? The Democrat Party has made another call for her to “show respect” to Thais by confronting issues the way a leader is supposed to. The opposition camp demands that she must display political courage and face big political issues instead of avoiding them like she always did last year. To Pheu Thai, it’s a matter of “Should she?” To more neutral observers, it may be a matter of “Can she?” rather than “Will she?”

According to the Democrats, 2012 requires a new leadership style from Yingluck, not least because the year will feature several ultra-hot political issues. One of them is the government’s campaign to change the current Constitution. The opposition party insists that when it comes to a political matter as big as charter amendment, Yingluck can no longer keep silent or pass the buck to Parliament.

If Yingluck remains evasive on crucial political issues, the public will get confused, and the prime minister will be accused of elaborate cover-up, the opposition said. Yet the public being confused is the least worrying scenario. If Yingluck is seen as acting naive in order to help her brother, the “other half” of Thailand not supporting her will be angered, not confused. She needs to come out and lead a public relations campaign to convince Thais that helping Thaksin is not her government’s motive.

The ruling Pheu Thai Party has made constitutional amendment one of its top priorities for this year. Past governments tended to let Parliament take the lead in amending the charter. However, the situation is very different this time, mainly because some proposed changes will be seen as part of a plan to help Yingluck’s big brother.

Since new laws and possible changes to the Constitution are required to help Thaksin Shinawatra return home, his fate will be seen as closely related to the government’s legislative moves. This is why Yingluck must bite the bullet and stay at the forefront of the 

government’s legislative agenda and clear any misunderstanding. She has to do it even though some doubters can never change their beliefs. Consequences could be worse if she continues to play the “it’s got nothing to do with me” card.

Some analysts believe that Yingluck may be willing to change her style if she can. Her problem is that she remains a political novice who cannot handle grilling on matters as complicated as constitutional amendments. Prime Minister Yingluck still needs behind-the-scenes tutorials on public issues far less complicated, so defending controversial charter proposals seems out of the question.

Despite not being an outspoken prime minister, Yingluck remains the most popular figure in the Pheu Thai camp. It’s an irony that the job of explaining controversial issues to the public belongs to one of the least popular members of her government, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, who did fine last year in drawing political fire to himself while keeping Yingluck shielded. That will be an impossible task when the charter revamp goes into full swing. Yingluck’s silence was a strange asset last year. As her political rivals have pointed out, it could become a big liability in the near future.