Big political beasts hounded by leadership issues
With his tongue firmly in his cheek, Surin Pitsuwan has set the tone for Thai politics in 2016. Although political observers remain eager to know what the new Constitution will look like and how Yingluck Shinawatra’s trial will go, Surin’s bombshell has r
Each party is experiencing different leadership problems. Pheu Thai’s identity crisis is ongoing and likely to worsen if Yingluck is convicted of corruption. The party might get away with placing another proxy of Thaksin Shinawatra at the helm, but a lot will depend on how its rival, the Democrat Party, sorts out its own issues at the top.
Abhisit Vejjajiva is young, capable and enjoys a relatively positive image on the international stage. But critics say he is too embroiled in the political strife. Hardcore red shirts hold him responsible for the bloody crackdown on their tumultuous 2010 protests in downtown Bangkok. This means both legal and political headaches for Thailand’s oldest party, but even if the Democrats decide to bite the bullet and let Abhisit have another shot, another serious legal problem looms.
When Yingluck was prime minister, the Defence Ministry stripped Abhisit of his military rank following prolonged controversy over whether he had attempted to dodge Army conscription as a young man. Abhisit’s was a relatively junior rank, but the dishonourable discharge planted a political time-bomb. Thai charter writers are fond of banning anyone stripped of their official rank for corruption from becoming an MP, and it could be claimed that Abhisit’s case falls into the “corruption” category. One thing is certain: It will be a hot political issue.
With Thais busy celebrating the New Year and shopping to take advantage of tax incentives, a major Civil Court ruling went largely unnoticed. The court dismissed Abhisit’s complaint against the order to strip his rank. He can still appeal, but the verdict was a big political blow nonetheless.
The Democrats are worried, of course. And that might explain why Surin’s declaration during the New Year – whether playful or prompted by reporters – was taken very seriously. Surin has since backtracked a little from his declared “readiness” to vie for the Democrat Party’s top spot, but the leadership issue won’t be easily dispelled from his camp this year.
Pheu Thai supporters may be eager to see Abhisit remain at the Democrat helm. First and foremost, if he stays put they will still be able to play the sympathy card and wield the bloody Ratchaprasong crackdown as their main political weapon. Second, they won’t have to bother seeking a new leader with better credentials than being a stand-in for Thaksin.
Surin and another potential candidate for Democrat leadership, Supachai Panitchpakdi, have strong international profiles, are popular and well respected in Thailand and were not involved in the political turmoil. Even former party leader Chuan Leekpai, who is without international credentials, is considered to be farther from the political strife than Abhisit.
The rise of Surin, Supachai or Chuan to the helm of the Democrat Party would be a game-changer. It would prompt Pheu Thai to come up with someone better than a Thaksin proxy, or else risk being perceived as unwilling to make sacrifices for the sake of reconciliation.
The question now is whether the Democrats will take the initiative.
Abhisit would rather die fighting in court than relinquish his party leadership prematurely. While we have seen vociferous leadership battles in the Democrat Party before, it would be unwise for its veterans to engage as things stand. Unless Abhisit acquiesces, it’s doubtful whether anyone could present himself as a serious alternative.
Despite such obstacles, the Democrats have a better leadership structure for the long run than Pheu Thai, which felt no need for internal reform until the amnesty bill blew up in its face, setting off a chain of events that put the country’s democracy on hold. Now, what used to be its formidable strength – the Shinawatra connection – has become Pheu Thai’s weakest link.
To distance Pheu Thai from Thaksin might be next to impossible, but perhaps the time has come to make a serious attempt in that direction, especially if the Democrats send a strong message that they are willing to help Thailand break away from its prolonged impasse. Pheu Thai can still project itself as “the party of the poor”, but its strategists must figure out ways to do that without causing divisiveness.
The two main parties are confronted with opposing long-term tasks. The Democrats have to prove they can constructively represent the grassroots, while Pheu Thai must show middle-class doubters that its policies were sincere attempts to “lift the nation” and not part of a hidden agenda. For the short term, though, each must decide who will lead them, and the nation, out of the quagmire.
