‘The President’ and her commander-in-chief

Parliamentary sessions pivotal to the shaping of Myanmar’s new political landscape get underway on February 1. This Parliament has roots in the military coup of 1962, but the landslide win for the National League for Democracy in November’s election means it will form the first democratic government in 50 years.

However, a smooth transfer of power to civilian rule will not mask the underlying malaise in the country’s politics, economy and social conditions.

 

The six ‘diseases’

First, it will not cure the longstanding lack of trust between elected civilian politicians, the military and ethnic groups. Years of rule by military dictatorship cannot just change for the better overnight.

Second, both the military and the minority ethnic camps are concerned that the electoral dominance of the NLD, which won nearly 80 per cent of the votes, will upset the balance of power shared between parliament and government. Minority candidates fared poorly in the election and have little political weight.

Third, the military and the public share fears that former top brass in the Union Solidarity and Development Party are conspiring with the NLD behind the scenes.

Fourth, links between the two key players – the NLD and the military – are shrouded in mystery, resulting in all kinds of public rumours and speculation. 

Fifth, there is widespread recognition after recent peace talks that the conflict between different ethnic groups and the government is more problematic than previously thought. If left unresolved, the ethnic issue could result in a repeat of the tensions of 1962, which led to a military takeover and decades of junta rule.

Elsewhere, the economy remains vulnerable and exposed to corruption. However, there is little hope that Aung San Suu Kyi’s incoming government will be able to rein in systemic corruption. 

Last but not least is the matter of taxation. To govern effectively, Suu Kyi’s administration will need to find more sources of tax revenue, as the income from selling off natural resources is limited.

 How and what the new government can do to tackle these huge challenges are big questions it must face in the coming weeks.

In the administrative branch, the Anti-Corruption, Anti-Bribery, and Taxation laws are not prescribed clearly. Neither has the Property Tax Law been properly put together, and none of these judicial cornerstones have been effectively enforced. It doesn’t help that as much as 90-95 per cent of the country’s output is in the hands of a small elite. 

As foreign investment pours into the country, wealth will continue to flow to cronies, generals and business cabals close to China.   

The complications and difficulties facing Myanmar in its transition to democratic rule contrast with the equivalent experiences of South Korea and Indonesia. 

First, Myanmar is a country whose diversity is underpinned by many different ethnicities. Meanwhile religious tension between Buddhist and Muslim citizens remains high in certain parts of the country.

Myanmar is also sandwiched between India and China, two Asian superpowers. The growth of China has contributed to Myanmar’s instability, prolonging civil wars and threatening to obliterate its natural resources. 

As such, national security is the first priority for Myanmar. To meet that priority, the government must end its conflicts with the country’s ethnic armed groups and co-opt their force for the defence of the nation. 

Meanwhile Suu Kyi’s government must reach an accord with the military, which will inevitably maintain its strong influence over politics.

 

Two visions

If the country is to move forward, Suu Kyi must reach agreement with Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing over their respective visions. Suu Kyi’s vision is to establish a democratic federal union in Myanmar, but that cannot be achieved without the commander-in-chief’s support. To gain support for that mission she will need to accommodate Min Aung Hlaing’s vision to build a professional standing army in the interests of national security.

This might look like a game of give-and-take, but in fact it must be a mutual understanding of visions for the betterment of the country.

Suu Kyi will also be keen to support military reform that produces a modern and professional army that is used to serve the people rather than repress them. 

Likewise, the commander-in-chief will need to assist in economic and political reforms initiated by Suu Kyi. In return, she will have to accommodate military-backed USDP lawmakers by handing them positions in high office. But the military’s power is limited by the NLD’s impressive public mandate, which it cannot defy without severely damaging its own dignity.

The current commander-in-chief is media savvy and has the strongest relationship with the public since that of General Ne Win, six decades ago. This bodes well for a good outcome.

Yet heavy-handed intervention by politicians in the reform of the military and its retreat from politics could break this atmosphere of trust and prevent progress.  

 

Future federalism

One crucial area that Suu Kyi and the commander-in-chief must agree upon is their vision for ethnic minority groups. 

Ethnic groups need incentives to make peace. Electoral failures suffered by ethnic parties cannot lead to their legitimacy and rights being represented by the NLD. Ethnic peoples have their own rights and these must be recognised.

Here, two developments offer reasons for hope. 

First, the commander-in-chief has recognised the need for a single army built through agreements with the current ethnic separatist armed outfits. Second, he has acceded to Suu Kyi becoming de-facto president of the country despite the constitutional bar against her taking that position.

These two visions – of Suu Kyi as “president” and of the commander-in-chief as leader of military reform – are the pillars upon which Myanmar’s future development and prosperity rest.

Only as leader of the country will Suu Kyi have the necessary power to negotiate with the commander-in-chief, ethnic leaders and international powers on directing the course the country takes.

As “president” she will also be able to help resolve the regional confrontation between China and the US.

Military power alone cannot ensure national security. It also needs an influential leader. Suu Kyi as de-facto president will not only solve problems within the country but also in the wider region. 

In a country whose future is shrouded by uncertainties, only these two persons can spur Myanmar onwards. The win-win solution of Suu Kyi as president and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing in charge of forging a professional army is the only safe path out of Myanmar’s political minefield. To ensure a smooth journey, the two leaders need to meet in the near future. Good relations between them are vital to the country’s present and future health.

Thy must find ways to help each other realise their visions. They must think beyond current problems to future solutions, beyond the military-drafted Constitution and beyond the rigid distinction between the military and those who oppose dictatorship.