Thailand’s balancing act in ties with Japan and China

Thailand and Japan are still fine-tuning their security dialogue to make sure they are on the same page. Their mutual enthusiasm has been developing over the past two years, at the same time Bangkok has intensified diplomatic engagement with major powers including China, Russia and India. Thailand and China held their first armed forces joint exercises last month, signalling a new era of security cooperation.
During Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s visit to Russia in May, Thailand agreed to purchase tanks and helicopters. Moscow also pledged to provide training and joint research on arms manufacturing. India and Thailand have already strengthened their strategic cooperation in both maritime security and counter-terrorism.
But it has been Japan’s renewed enthusiasm in forging security ties with Thailand that has intrigued other Asean members. After the Thai military seized power in May 2014, Japan initially criticised Thailand, then changed its approach, enabling bilateral relations to proceed smoothly. Indeed, the “new normal” situation has further strengthened relations between the former World War II allies, as the US continues to freeze and restrict defence cooperation with Thailand.
When Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a major foreign policy speech on Asean in Bangkok in early May, Tokyo wanted succinctly to highlight the pivotal role of its former ally in the new regional environment, both as a developmental and strategic partner. Japan’s renewed focus on Thailand and on the Mekong subregion resonated very well with the Thai military regime. The two countries are long-standing partners of the US in the Asia-Pacific region, as are Australia, South Korea and the Philippines. Their security cooperation, collectively or bilaterally, has always been in concert with the US. Both have assisted Washington to execute strategic plans. Japan houses nearly 50,000 US troops at bases in Yokosuka, Okinawa and elsewhere, while Thailand until recently provided logistics support for numerous US overseas operations – particularly military and humanitarian assistance in the Middle East.
During the Cambodian conflict (1979-1992), Japan and Thailand worked closely as part of regional efforts to bring about a peaceful settlement to the 13-year civil war. They also took part in peace-keeping and policing duties there after the war ended. Now, the two countries want to reorient their defence posture, mapping out distinctive regional strategies knowing full well that no country can secure regional peace alone.
When Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani visited Bangkok early June, he and his Thai counterpart, General Prawit Wongsuwan, held discussions which turned out to be the most substantive as far as the countries’ future security relationship is concerned. The meeting was a far cry from the past when bilateral talks often focused on basic cooperation such as information and intelligence exchanges and training on anti-piracy and humanitarian assistance. This time, they agreed on increased joint military exercises. A memorandum of understanding was signed to promote technical cooperation including military technological transfer and research. Both sides agreed to increase the number of Thai military leaders to be trained at Japan’s elite National Defence Institute. Currently, only 179 Thai graduates have emerged from the school. Japan participates actively in the annual Thai-US Cobra Gold military exercise, especially in non-combatant evacuation operations. In future, Thailand would like to invite Japan to take part in amphibious landing exercises.
Thailand’s plan to procure Japanese-made patrol and rescue aircraft is in the pipeline but, due to its high costs, it requires a high budgetary commitment. Tokyo is eager to export non-lethal military hardware to foreign countries following the lifting of its ban on weapons sales in 2015. In 1999, Thailand unsuccessfully tried to purchase second-hand US F-5 jetfighters from Japan, a transfer which required Washington’s permission.
Given the heighten tensions between China and Japan over maritime disputes in South China Sea, Thailand is no longer shying away from forging closer defence ties with Japan. After their brief alliance during World War II, when Thailand backed Japanese forces in the Southeast Asian theatre, Thailand halted all defence cooperation after Japan was defeated. During the Chatichai government in the late 1980s to early 1990s, Thailand and Japan tried to initiate a joint maritime patrol to combat piracy but there were objections from other Asean members.
The government of Yingluck Shinawatra discreetly turned down Japan’s offer for strengthening maritime security cooperation in 2013, while Vietnam and the Philippines signed memorandums of understanding to beef-up security cooperation with Tokyo. However, dramatic changes with Japan’s foreign and defence policies under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the past three years have been affecting Thailand’s overall security strategies.
The truth of the matter is this. With Thailand and China having made huge progress on their defence ties, Bangkok now finds it necessary to respond to Japan’s new security overture. After all, Japan’s proactive contributions to the principle of peace such as promoting the rule of law and humanitarian assistance also chime well with Thailand’s defence policy outlook in strengthening regional peace and stability. To do so, it is crucial that the deepening of Thai-Japanese security cooperation is not aimed at a third party. Within Asean, Thailand does not perceive China as an enemy.
With Thailand’s strong desire to create an equilibrium between Asian powers, and its concurrent economic interest in maintaining strong ties with China, it remains to be seen how this emerging Thai-Japanese security dynamic will play out. And it clearly hopes to be at the centre of the new balance.