Will China join the TPP? You’re asking the wrong question

The two main impressions the Chinese people have about the TPP are: It is the previous US administration’s design to “contain” China, and that current President Donald Trump believes it would be a drain on the US economy and therefore has abandoned it. And that the TPP could be an economic burden on China, if were to join, is precisely why many Chinese people are worried. Some even believe that China would fall into the “trap” of US diplomatic strategy by joining the trade deal.
But China is ready to hear out TPP member countries’ concerns to help pave the way for an early agreement on free trade in the Asia-Pacific
While negotiating economic arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the free trade area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), China has been promoting inclusive growth in the Asia-Pacific region. 
So it is possible that China will cooperate with the TPP for that purpose – but that does not mean it might join the economic bloc.
Of course, there is a possibility of coordination between the RCEP and the TPP. As the two main cooperative arrangements in the Asia-Pacific, the RCEP and the TPP are not at odds with each other. Several signatory countries to the TPP, including Japan, Australia and Singapore, also support the RCEP. It shows the two arrangements are not zero-sum games.
The RCEP and the TPP both aim to promote economic and trade cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, though their rules and access conditions are different. If they are opposed to each other, the result would be economic disintegration in Asia-Pacific, which would not be beneficial to any of the parties.
Given that China is the largest trade partner of many countries in Asia-Pacific, one cannot imagine a regional cooperative economic or trade arrangement without Beijing.
Therefore, many of the countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific prefer not to choose between the TPP and the RCEP; all they want is to avoid being isolated or excluded from the future economic groupings.
That position accords with China’s call for openness and inclusiveness. By promoting the RCEP, China does not intend to build a closed economic circle; instead, it has an open attitude toward TPP members and welcomes them to participate in the RCEP and FTAAP.
But since the TPP’s earlier leadership excluded China from its plans, Beijing lacks a detailed understanding of TPP regulations and its members’ interests. And China needs to better understand other economies’ interests and primary concerns, in order to get their support to develop a more inclusive Asia-Pacific cooperation arrangement.
Still, the chance of China joining, let alone leading, the TPP is small, because some of the rules are not in accordance with its interests. But China is ready to hear out TPP member countries’ concerns to help pave the way for an early agreement on free trade in Asia-Pacific.

Ling Shengli is secretary-general of the Centre of International Security Studies at the China Foreign Affairs University, Beijing.